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Pollster file

Change Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
5.74percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.07
Represented cycles
32017–2020
Current archive
76canonical records
History span
May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Change Research (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2017 · 2018 · 2020

101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 76 total

Hyde-Smith +3

Would not vote 2% · Don't know 9% · Ty Pinkins 6% · Scott Colom 40% · Cindy Hyde-Smith 43%

Field dates
Oct 21–Oct 22, 2026
Sample
842 LV
Sponsor / client
Government that Works PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Perez +1

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 45% · John Braun 44%

Field dates
Oct 19–Oct 21, 2026
Sample
551 LV
Sponsor / client
Northwest Progressive Institute
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 46% · Rep 39%

Field dates
Sep 15–Sep 24, 2026
Sample
2,021 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 45% · Rep 40%

Field dates
Aug 8–Aug 13, 2026
Sample
2,045 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Tied

Byron Donalds 47% · David Jolly 47%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 10, 2026
Sample
920 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Cooper +10

Roy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 40% · Shannon Bray 2% · Michael Dublin 1%

Field dates
Oct 1–Oct 7, 2026
Sample
829 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Moody +1

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 5% · Ashley Moody 48% · Angie Nixon 47%

Field dates
Sep 25–Sep 27, 2026
Sample
1,063 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jolly +2

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 5% · Byron Donalds 46% · David Jolly 48%

Field dates
Sep 25–Sep 27, 2026
Sample
1,063 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Dembo +9

Someone else 7% · Don't know/Would not vote 8% · Ralph Alvarado 38% · Zach Dembo 47%

Field dates
Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026
Sample
524 LV
Sponsor / client
Kentuckians Not Corruption
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2020MO-2 · HouseHouse-G2020-11-015970R+6.4D+6.4
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-31473D+4.0R+1.8D+5.8
2020MT · SenateSen-G2020-10-31920R+4.0R+10.0D+6.0
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-31383D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
2020ME · SenateSen-G2020-10-311,024D+6.0R+8.6D+14.6
2020IA · SenateSen-G2020-10-311,084D+1.0R+6.6D+7.6
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-31409D+4.0D+2.4D+1.6
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31553D+8.0D+0.6D+7.4
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-311,880D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31699D+4.0D+1.2D+2.8
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31473D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
2020N2 · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31547D+3.0D+6.5R+3.5
2020MT · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31920R+5.0R+16.4D+11.4
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31383D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
2020ME · PresidentPres-G2020-10-311,024D+12.0D+9.1D+2.9
2020M2 · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31475D+0.5R+7.4D+7.9
2020M1 · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31549D+21.0D+23.1R+2.1
2020IA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-311,0840R+8.2D+8.2
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31806D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-31409D+3.0D+0.3D+2.7
2020OK-5 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-316070R+4.1D+4.1
2020OH-1 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-31505R+2.0R+7.2D+5.2
2020NY-24 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-31738D+2.0R+10.2D+12.2
2020NE-2 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-31547D+1.0R+4.6D+5.6
2020ME-2 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-31475D+9.0D+6.1D+2.9
2020IN-5 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-315960R+4.1D+4.1
2020AR-2 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-315860R+10.7D+10.7
2020MT · GovernorGov-G2020-10-31920R+4.0R+12.9D+8.9
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-241,125D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
2020FL-15 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-23530R+2.0R+10.8D+8.8
2020NC · SenateSen-G2020-10-18521D+6.0R+1.8D+7.8
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-10-18718D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
2020AK · SenateSen-G2020-10-181,076R+3.0R+12.7D+9.7
2020AZ · SenateSen-G2020-10-18232D+11.0D+2.4D+8.7
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18447D+8.0D+0.6D+7.4
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-182,711D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18574D+2.0D+1.2D+0.8
2020NC · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18521D+3.0R+1.4D+4.3
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18718D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18547D+5.0R+3.4D+8.4
2020AZ · PresidentPres-G2020-10-18232D+6.0D+0.3D+5.7
2020MN · SenateSen-G2020-10-141,021D+4.0D+5.2R+1.2
2020MN · PresidentPres-G2020-10-141,021D+5.0D+7.1R+2.1
2020IA-4 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-14603R+5.0R+24.2D+19.2
2018MS · SenateSen-G2018-11-251,211R+5.0R+7.3D+2.3
2018MS · SenateSen-G2018-11-031,003D+13.0R+0.3D+13.3
2018WY · SenateSen-G2018-11-03858R+29.0R+36.9D+7.9
2018PA · SenateSen-G2018-11-031,833D+7.0D+13.1R+6.1
2018OH · SenateSen-G2018-11-03923D+10.0D+6.8D+3.1
2018NJ · SenateSen-G2018-11-031,006D+10.0D+11.2R+1.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.