Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
11 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 21 total
Mary Peltola 49.4% · Dan Sullivan 44.2% · Gerald Heikes 3.7% · Dustin Darden 2.7%
Mary Peltola 48.4% · Dan Sullivan 43.8% · Dustin Darden 5.1% · Gerald Heikes 2.7%
Don't know 5.6% · Dan Sullivan 46.4% · Mary Peltola 48%
Don't know 6.3% · Dan Sullivan 45.9% · Mary Peltola 47.7%
Don't know 10.9% · Mary Peltola 42.5% · Dan Sullivan 46.7%
Dan Sullivan 41% · Mary Peltola 44%
Mary Peltola 50.6% · Dan Sullivan 49.4%
Nick Begich 50.6% · Bill Hill 39.1% · Eric Hafner 4.6% · John Williams 5.7%
Bill Hill 46.5% · Nick Begich III 53.5%
Mary Peltola 50.8% · Dan Sullivan 49.2%
Tom Begich 50.9% · Bernadette Wilson 49.1%
Tom Begich 53.9% · Bernadette Wilson 46.1%
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2022-10-21 | 1,276 | D+18.4 | D+22.8 | R+4.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2022-10-21 | 1,276 | D+23.5 | D+22.9 | D+0.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 500 | D+1.0 | R+6.6 | D+7.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AK | Gov-G | 2018-10-28 | 500 | R+0.2 | R+7.0 | D+6.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AK | Gov-G | 2018-10-21 | 500 | R+4.6 | R+7.0 | D+2.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2014-10-25 | 437 | D+7.3 | R+2.1 | D+9.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2014-10-25 | 437 | D+1.9 | R+10.0 | D+11.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+1.0 | D+1.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_AK | Pres-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | R+11.0 | R+21.6 | D+10.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+8.0 | R+5.2 | D+13.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2004-10-16 | 548 | D+1.6 | R+3.0 | D+4.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.