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Pollster file

Trafalgar Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
113
Mean absolute error
4.04percentage points
Historical bias
R+2.44
Represented cycles
92016–2025
Current archive
8canonical records
History span
Oct 25, 2016through Nov 2, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
The Trafalgar Group · Trafalgar Group (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

113 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

8 shown · 8 total

Ossoff +8.9

Don't know 6.1% · Someone else 10% · Brad Raffensperger 37.5% · Jon Ossoff 46.4%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Ossoff +4.7

Don't know 6.5% · Someone else 3.3% · Mike Collins 42.8% · Jon Ossoff 47.5%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Ossoff +11.8

Don't know 7.8% · Someone else 7.5% · Marjorie Taylor Greene 36.5% · Jon Ossoff 48.3%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +6.5

Abigail Spanberger 49.8% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43.3%

Field dates
Nov 1–Nov 2, 2025
Sample
1,057
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +2.6

Abigail Spanberger 47.7% · Winsome Earle-Sears 45.1%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 10, 2025
Sample
1,066 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +5.2

Abigail Spanberger 47.1% · Winsome Earle-Sears 41.9% · Donna Charles 1.6%

Field dates
Sep 25–Oct 1, 2025
Sample
1,034 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +9.9

Approve 54.4% · Disapprove 44.5%

Field dates
Jun 18–Jun 20, 2025
Sample
1,085 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ossoff +4.7

Jon Ossoff 47.5% · Mike Collins 42.8%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 113 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-121,095R+0.9R+1.9D+1.0
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2021-01-031,056R+1.3D+2.1R+3.4
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2021-01-031,056D+0.9D+1.2R+0.3
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2020-12-251,022D+0.8D+2.1R+1.3
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2020-12-251,022D+2.7D+1.2D+1.5
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2020-12-151,064R+6.7D+2.1R+8.8
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2020-12-151,064R+2.7D+1.2R+3.9
20202020_Pres-G_NVPres-G2020-11-011,024R+0.7D+2.4R+3.1
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-11-011,041R+4.3D+0.2R+4.5
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-11-011,054R+2.1R+3.4D+1.3
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-311,062R+1.9D+1.2R+3.1
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-311,041R+4.8R+8.0D+3.2
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-311,033R+2.5D+2.8R+5.3
20202020_Pres-G_NVPres-G2020-10-291,024D+2.3D+2.4R+0.1
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-281,082R+2.0R+1.4R+0.7
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-271,058R+2.5D+2.8R+5.3
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-271,088R+2.7R+3.4D+0.7
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-271,002R+2.5D+0.3R+2.8
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-251,082D+0.4D+0.6R+0.2
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-251,076R+0.8D+1.2R+2.0
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-251,065D+3.2D+7.1R+3.9
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-211,098R+1.8R+1.8R+0.1
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-211,098R+2.8R+1.4R+1.4
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-171,034R+2.2D+1.7R+3.9
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-171,034R+1.8D+2.8R+4.6
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-151,051D+1.3D+0.6D+0.7
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-141,041D+1.1D+1.2R+0.1
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-131,018R+1.4D+1.7R+3.1
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-131,025R+0.6D+2.8R+3.4
20192019_Gov-GR_LAGov-G2019-11-141,107R+1.2D+2.7R+3.9
20192019_Gov-G_KYGov-G2019-10-311,117R+5.9D+0.4R+6.3
20192019_Gov-O_LAGov-G2019-10-091,070D+23.4D+19.2D+4.2
20182018_Sen-G_FLSen-G2018-11-051,484R+1.7R+0.1R+1.6
20182018_Sen-G_AZSen-G2018-11-051,217R+2.1D+2.3R+4.4
20182018_Gov-G_FLGov-G2018-11-051,484R+3.4R+0.4R+3.0
20182018_Sen-G_TXSen-G2018-11-042,135R+8.9R+2.6R+6.3
20182018_Sen-G_MTSen-G2018-11-04953D+1.1D+3.5R+2.5
20182018_Sen-G_MISen-G2018-11-041,817D+9.0D+6.5D+2.5
20182018_Gov-G_OHGov-G2018-11-031,948D+3.6R+3.7D+7.3
20182018_Sen-G_MOSen-G2018-11-011,791R+3.9R+5.8D+1.9
20182018_Gov-G_GAGov-G2018-11-012,171R+12.3R+1.4R+10.9
20182018_Sen-G_NVSen-G2018-10-312,587R+3.3D+5.1R+8.4
20182018_Sen-G_AZSen-G2018-10-312,166D+2.7D+2.3D+0.4
20182018_Gov-G_NVGov-G2018-10-312,587R+2.1D+4.2R+6.3
20182018_Sen-G_FLSen-G2018-10-302,543D+2.2R+0.1D+2.3
20182018_Gov-G_SCGov-G2018-10-303,792R+16.2R+8.0R+8.2
20182018_Gov-G_FLGov-G2018-10-302,543D+2.3R+0.4D+2.7
20182018_Sen-G_NDSen-G2018-10-241,498R+9.0R+10.9D+1.9
20172017_Sen-GS_ALSen-G2017-12-071,419R+5.1D+1.6R+6.8
20172017_Gov-G_VAGov-G2017-11-011,200D+1.8D+8.9R+7.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.