Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
113 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 26 total
Alan Wilson 52.5% · Jermaine Johnson 36.5% · Michael Addison 4.2% · Walid Hakim 1.6%
Don't know 1.2% · Mark Hackett 0.8% · Kasie Whitener 3.9% · Annie Andrews 45.6% · Darline Graham 48.6%
Don't know 5.4% · Marisa Simonetti 0.8% · Rebecca Whiting 1.1% · Michele Tafoya 44.6% · Peggy Flanagan 48.1%
Don't know 6.4% · Thomas Laehn 3.5% · Josh Turek 44.2% · Ashley Hinson 45.9%
Abdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 45% · Lydia Christensen 2% · Tim Long 1% · Douglas P. Marsh 0% · Walter P. Kristy 0%
Sherrod Brown 45% · Jon Husted 42%
Don't know 6.9% · Shannon Bray 1.4% · Michael Dublin 2% · Michael Whatley 40.9% · Roy Cooper 48.8%
Don't know 5.9% · Mike Collins 43% · Jon Ossoff 51%
Don't know 7.6% · Ted Brown 1.8% · Ken Paxton 43.6% · James Talarico 47.1%
Don't know 7.9% · Susan Collins 45.9% · Troy Jackson 46.2%
Don't know 10.1% · David Graham 2% · Roger Marshall 43.5% · Adam Hamilton 44.4%
Don't know 11% · Edmond Laplante 1.1% · John Sununu 40.5% · Chris Pappas 47.4%
50 shown · 113 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-11-02 | — | D+7.0 | D+15.4 | R+8.4 |
| 2025 | VA · Attorney general | AG-G | 2025-11-02 | — | 0 | D+6.7 | R+6.7 |
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-15 | — | D+2.0 | D+15.4 | R+13.4 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-03 | — | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-03 | — | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | D+0.7 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-03 | — | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-03 | — | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2024 | NV · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-28 | — | 0 | R+3.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-28 | — | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-26 | — | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-26 | — | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-18 | — | 0 | R+0.9 | D+0.9 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-18 | — | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-17 | — | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2022 | GA · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-12-04 | 1,099 | D+3.7 | D+2.8 | D+0.9 |
| 2022 | NV · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-06 | 1,089 | R+4.9 | D+0.8 | R+5.7 |
| 2022 | AZ · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-06 | 1,094 | R+1.5 | D+4.9 | R+6.4 |
| 2022 | NV · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-06 | 1,089 | R+2.5 | R+1.5 | R+1.0 |
| 2022 | MI · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-06 | 1,097 | R+0.3 | D+10.5 | R+10.8 |
| 2022 | AZ · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-06 | 1,094 | R+3.6 | D+0.7 | R+4.3 |
| 2022 | NC · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-05 | 1,098 | R+6.4 | R+3.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2022 | GA · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-05 | 1,103 | R+3.2 | D+1.0 | R+4.2 |
| 2022 | national · House | House-G | 2022-11-05 | 1,099 | R+5.7 | R+2.7 | R+3.0 |
| 2022 | GA · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-05 | 1,103 | R+8.9 | R+7.5 | R+1.4 |
| 2022 | OH · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-04 | 1,123 | R+10.4 | R+6.1 | R+4.3 |
| 2022 | OH · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-04 | 1,123 | R+24.5 | R+25.0 | D+0.5 |
| 2022 | WI · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-03 | 1,095 | R+2.7 | R+1.0 | R+1.7 |
| 2022 | WI · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-03 | 1,095 | R+1.6 | D+3.4 | R+5.0 |
| 2022 | PA · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-11-02 | 1,097 | R+2.2 | D+4.9 | R+7.1 |
| 2022 | PA · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-11-02 | 1,097 | D+4.3 | D+14.8 | R+10.5 |
| 2022 | NH · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-31 | 1,241 | R+1.3 | D+9.1 | R+10.4 |
| 2022 | MO · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-31 | 1,079 | R+11.0 | R+13.3 | D+2.3 |
| 2022 | CO · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-31 | 1,084 | D+1.5 | D+14.6 | R+13.1 |
| 2022 | CO · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-31 | 1,084 | D+7.1 | D+19.4 | R+12.3 |
| 2022 | NY · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-29 | 1,198 | D+10.6 | D+14.0 | R+3.4 |
| 2022 | NY · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-29 | 1,198 | R+0.8 | D+6.4 | R+7.2 |
| 2022 | WA · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-27 | 1,207 | D+1.2 | D+14.6 | R+13.3 |
| 2022 | national · House | House-G | 2022-10-26 | 1,089 | R+5.8 | R+2.7 | R+3.1 |
| 2022 | CO · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-26 | 1,174 | D+7.7 | D+19.4 | R+11.7 |
| 2022 | NV · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-24 | 1,100 | R+4.2 | D+0.8 | R+5.0 |
| 2022 | NV · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-24 | 1,100 | R+6.8 | R+1.5 | R+5.3 |
| 2022 | GA · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,076 | R+2.4 | D+1.0 | R+3.4 |
| 2022 | GA · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,076 | R+6.9 | R+7.5 | D+0.6 |
| 2022 | OR · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,161 | R+1.3 | D+3.4 | R+4.7 |
| 2022 | NM · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,077 | R+1.1 | D+6.4 | R+7.5 |
| 2022 | MI · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,079 | D+0.5 | D+10.5 | R+10.0 |
| 2022 | NC · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-18 | 1,081 | R+4.2 | R+3.2 | R+1.0 |
| 2022 | MN · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-18 | 1,091 | R+0.5 | D+7.7 | R+8.2 |
| 2021 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2021-10-30 | 1,081 | R+2.3 | R+1.9 | R+0.4 |
| 2021 | NJ · Governor | Gov-G | 2021-10-30 | 1,085 | D+4.2 | D+3.2 | D+1.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.