Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
101 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 36 total
Don't know 4.11% · Someone else 0.9% · Bobby Charles 39.62% · Hannah Pingree 55.38%
Don't know 3.46% · Someone else 0.32% · Susan Collins 47.02% · Graham Platner 49.2%
Dem 47.95% · Rep 42.7%
Dem 47.12% · Rep 45.18%
Dem 47% · Rep 44%
Approve 36.52% · Disapprove 58.71%
Approve 40.39% · Disapprove 56.26%
Approve 42.92% · Disapprove 54.09%
Approve 41.52% · Disapprove 53.94%
Josh Shapiro 55% · Stacy Garrity 39%
Josh Shapiro 54% · Stacy Garrity 37%
Dem 49.72% · Rep 39.46%
1 shown · 101 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2016-10-22 | 792 | D+6.0 | D+0.2 | D+5.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.