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Joint polling team

The New York Times/Siena College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 101
Mean absolute error: 3.98percentage points
Historical bias: D+1.22
Represented cycles: 62016–2024
Current archive: 36canonical records
History span: Oct 22, 2016through Nov 2, 2024

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer · The New York Times/Siena University · The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University
Participating organizations: The New York Times · Siena College
Cycles represented: 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

101 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 36 total

Race

Maine · Governor

Pingree +15.8

Don't know 4.11% · Someone else 0.9% · Bobby Charles 39.62% · Hannah Pingree 55.38%

Field dates: Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026
Sample: 608 LV
Sponsor / client: Portland Press Herald
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

Maine · Senate

Platner +2.2

Don't know 3.46% · Someone else 0.32% · Susan Collins 47.02% · Graham Platner 49.2%

Field dates: Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026
Sample: 608 LV
Sponsor / client: Portland Press Herald
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +5.3

Dem 47.95% · Rep 42.7%

Field dates: Jan 12–Jan 17, 2026
Sample: 1,625 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +1.9

Dem 47.12% · Rep 45.18%

Field dates: Sep 22–Sep 27, 2025
Sample: 1,313 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 47% · Rep 44%

Field dates: Apr 21–Apr 24, 2025
Sample: 913 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +22.2

Approve 36.52% · Disapprove 58.71%

Field dates: May 11–May 15, 2026
Sample: 1,507 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +15.9

Approve 40.39% · Disapprove 56.26%

Field dates: Jan 12–Jan 17, 2026
Sample: 1,625 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +11.2

Approve 42.92% · Disapprove 54.09%

Field dates: Sep 22–Sep 27, 2025
Sample: 1,313 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +12.4

Approve 41.52% · Disapprove 53.94%

Field dates: Apr 21–Apr 24, 2025
Sample: 913 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Pennsylvania · Governor

Shapiro +16

Josh Shapiro 55% · Stacy Garrity 39%

Field dates: Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026
Sample: 760 LV
Sponsor / client: The Philadelphia Inquirer
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Pennsylvania · Governor

Shapiro +17

Josh Shapiro 54% · Stacy Garrity 37%

Field dates: Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026
Sample: 760 RV
Sponsor / client: The Philadelphia Inquirer
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +10.3

Dem 49.72% · Rep 39.46%

Field dates: May 11–May 15, 2026
Sample: 1,507 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 101 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2018	2018_House-G_IL-14	House-G	2018-11-02	428	D+5.2	D+5.0	D+0.2
2018	2018_House-G_IA-4	House-G	2018-11-02	423	R+4.8	R+3.3	R+1.4
2018	2018_House-G_TX-32	House-G	2018-11-01	477	D+4.0	D+6.5	R+2.5
2018	2018_House-G_GA-6	House-G	2018-11-01	421	D+2.1	D+1.0	D+1.1
2018	2018_House-G_CA-48	House-G	2018-11-01	491	D+1.7	D+7.1	R+5.4
2018	2018_House-G_NJ-7	House-G	2018-10-30	503	D+7.9	D+5.0	D+2.9
2018	2018_House-G_IA-1	House-G	2018-10-30	452	D+6.5	D+5.1	D+1.4
2018	2018_House-G_KS-2	House-G	2018-10-29	501	D+4.5	R+0.8	D+5.3
2018	2018_House-G_CA-45	House-G	2018-10-29	499	D+1.3	D+4.1	R+2.8
2018	2018_House-G_PA-1	House-G	2018-10-28	502	R+1.3	R+2.5	D+1.2
2018	2018_House-G_NY-27	House-G	2018-10-27	501	R+4.4	R+0.4	R+4.0
2018	2018_House-G_CA-25	House-G	2018-10-27	504	R+4.4	D+8.7	R+13.2
2018	2018_House-G_IA-3	House-G	2018-10-26	504	D+2.2	D+2.2	R+0.0
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-10-25	737	D+3.5	R+0.1	D+3.6
2018	2018_House-G_UT-4	House-G	2018-10-25	526	D+0.3	D+0.3	D+0.1
2018	2018_House-G_PA-10	House-G	2018-10-25	498	R+1.6	R+2.6	D+1.1
2018	2018_House-G_NY-11	House-G	2018-10-25	495	R+3.3	D+6.5	R+9.8
2018	2018_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2018-10-25	737	D+4.4	R+0.4	D+4.8
2018	2018_House-G_NJ-3	House-G	2018-10-23	508	R+0.6	D+1.3	R+1.9
2018	2018_House-G_IL-6	House-G	2018-10-23	497	D+1.2	D+7.2	R+5.9
2018	2018_House-G_IL-13	House-G	2018-10-23	501	R+5.1	R+0.8	R+4.3
2018	2018_House-G_CA-10	House-G	2018-10-23	501	D+2.4	D+4.5	R+2.1
2018	2018_House-G_TX-7	House-G	2018-10-22	499	R+0.9	D+5.1	R+5.9
2018	2018_House-G_OH-1	House-G	2018-10-22	492	R+8.7	R+4.4	R+4.3
2018	2018_House-G_FL-26	House-G	2018-10-22	499	D+0.9	D+1.8	R+0.9
2018	2018_House-G_CA-49	House-G	2018-10-22	500	D+14.7	D+12.8	D+1.9
2018	2018_House-G_NM-2	House-G	2018-10-21	522	R+0.1	D+1.9	R+1.9
2018	2018_House-G_CA-39	House-G	2018-10-21	496	D+1.0	D+3.1	R+2.1
2018	2018_House-G_VA-2	House-G	2018-10-20	508	R+2.8	D+2.2	R+5.0
2018	2018_House-G_IL-12	House-G	2018-10-20	502	R+8.5	R+6.2	R+2.3
2018	2018_House-G_VA-5	House-G	2018-10-19	501	D+1.0	R+6.5	D+7.6
2018	2018_House-G_PA-8	House-G	2018-10-18	506	D+12.6	D+9.3	D+3.3
2018	2018_House-G_FL-15	House-G	2018-10-18	499	R+0.7	R+6.0	D+5.4
2018	2018_Sen-G_AZ	Sen-G	2018-10-17	606	R+1.8	D+2.3	R+4.1
2018	2018_House-G_WA-3	House-G	2018-10-17	497	R+7.0	R+5.3	R+1.6
2018	2018_House-G_ME-2	House-G	2018-10-17	501	D+0.1	D+1.3	R+1.1
2018	2018_House-G_FL-27	House-G	2018-10-17	542	D+7.2	D+6.0	D+1.2
2018	2018_House-G_WV-3	House-G	2018-10-16	490	R+4.6	R+12.8	D+8.1
2018	2018_House-G_TX-23	House-G	2018-10-16	488	R+15.4	R+0.4	R+15.0
2018	2018_House-G_KS-3	House-G	2018-10-16	503	D+9.0	D+9.7	R+0.6
2017	2017_Gov-G_VA	Gov-G	2017-10-31	985	D+3.0	D+8.9	R+5.9
2016	2016_Sen-G_NC	Sen-G	2016-11-05	800	R+1.0	R+5.7	D+4.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_NC	Pres-G	2016-11-05	800	0	R+3.7	D+3.7
2016	2016_Gov-G_NC	Gov-G	2016-11-05	800	D+1.0	D+0.2	D+0.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2016-10-26	815	R+9.0	R+7.7	R+1.3
2016	2016_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2016-10-26	815	R+3.5	R+1.2	R+2.3
2016	2016_Sen-G_PA	Sen-G	2016-10-24	824	D+3.0	R+1.4	D+4.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_PA	Pres-G	2016-10-24	824	D+7.0	R+0.7	D+7.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_NC	Sen-G	2016-10-22	792	D+1.0	R+5.7	D+6.7
2016	2016_Pres-G_NC	Pres-G	2016-10-22	792	D+7.5	R+3.7	D+11.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.