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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Pollster file

Targoz Market Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
24
Mean absolute error
5.92percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.49
Represented cycles
52018–2022
Current archive
44canonical records
History span
Oct 30, 2018through Nov 4, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022

24 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 44 total

Rose +19

Don't know 21% · Generic Democrat 30% · John Rose 49%

Field dates
Jul 27–Aug 1, 2025
Sample
1,167 RV
Sponsor / client
Beacon Center
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Blackburn +19

Don't know 17% · Generic Democrat 32% · Marsha Blackburn 51%

Field dates
Jul 27–Aug 1, 2025
Sample
1,173 RV
Sponsor / client
Beacon Center
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary

Florida · Governor

Cava +27

Daniella Levine Cava 35% · Jason Pizzo 8%

Field dates
May 7, 2025
Sample
1,200 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
DeSantis +4

Don't know 18% · Jay Pizzo 8% · Daniella Levine Cava 35% · Casey DeSantis 39%

Field dates
May 5–May 7, 2025
Sample
1,144 RV
Sponsor / client
James Madison Institute
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

DeSantis +1

Casey DeSantis 29% · Byron Donalds 28% · Matt Gaetz 10% · Wilton Simpson 4%

Field dates
May 7, 2025
Sample
516 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Donalds +4

Don't know 23% · Jay Pizzo 5% · Daniella Levine Cava 34% · Byron Donalds 38%

Field dates
May 5–May 7, 2025
Sample
1,153 RV
Sponsor / client
James Madison Institute
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary

Florida · Governor

Cava +19

Daniella Levine Cava 32% · Gwen Graham 13% · David Jolly 10% · Angie Nixon 6% · Shevrin Jones 4% · Fentrice Driskell 7%

Field dates
May 7, 2025
Sample
396 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

DeSantis +6

Casey DeSantis 28% · Byron Donalds 22% · Matt Gaetz 8% · Wilton Simpson 4%

Field dates
Apr 22, 2025
Sample
619 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary

Florida · Governor

Pizzo +26

Jason Pizzo 41% · Daniella Levine Cava 15% · Gwen Graham 5% · David Jolly 7% · Angie Nixon 4% · Shevrin Jones 2% · Fentrice Driskell 1%

Field dates
Apr 22, 2025
Sample
464 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hagerty +20

Bill Hagerty 51% · Marquita Bradshaw 31%

Field dates
Aug 15–Aug 26, 2026
Sample
1,157 RV
Sponsor / client
Beacon Center of Tennessee
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Blackburn +13

Marsha Blackburn 46% · Jerri Green 33% · Independent 8%

Field dates
Aug 15–Aug 26, 2026
Sample
1,149 RV
Sponsor / client
Beacon Center of Tennessee
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

24 shown · 24 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-11-04631R+5.0D+4.9R+9.9
20222022_Sen-G_OHSen-G2022-11-04505R+7.0R+6.1R+0.9
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-11-04579R+2.0D+1.0R+3.0
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-11-04560D+3.0D+4.9R+1.9
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-11-04631D+6.0D+14.8R+8.8
20222022_Gov-G_OHGov-G2022-11-04505R+30.0R+25.0R+5.0
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-11-04579R+14.0R+7.5R+6.5
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-11-04560R+2.0D+0.7R+2.7
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-29747D+3.0R+1.9D+4.9
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2021-01-01713D+2.0D+2.1R+0.1
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2021-01-017130D+1.2R+1.2
20202020_Sen-G_MNSen-G2020-10-281,138D+9.0D+5.2D+3.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-28993D+11.0D+1.7D+9.3
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-28998D+14.0D+1.2D+12.8
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-281,138D+9.0D+7.1D+1.9
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-28993D+14.0D+2.8D+11.2
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-281,027D+3.7R+3.4D+7.1
20192019_Gov-GR_LAGov-G2019-11-10640D+4.0D+2.7D+1.3
20192019_Gov-G_MSGov-G2019-10-17384R+1.0R+5.1D+4.1
20192019_Gov-G_KYGov-G2019-10-17401D+19.0D+0.4D+18.6
20182018_Sen-G_TNSen-G2018-10-304800R+10.8D+10.8
20182018_Sen-G_FLSen-G2018-10-30558R+4.0R+0.1R+3.9
20182018_Gov-G_TNGov-G2018-10-30480R+9.0R+21.0D+12.0
20182018_Gov-G_FLGov-G2018-10-30558R+1.0R+0.4R+0.6

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.