Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
24 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 44 total
Carnita Atwater 8% · Tim Cyr 3% · Jerri Green 14% · Adam Ditch Kurtz 2% · Kevin Lee McCants 11%
Jerry Demings 23% · David Jolly 31%
Don't know 17% · Jay Pizzo 6% · David Jolly 36% · Byron Donalds 41%
Jay Collins 15% · Byron Donalds 33% · James Fishback 3% · Paul Renner 9%
Don't know 24% · Jay Pizzo 6% · David Jolly 34% · Byron Donalds 36%
Marsha Blackburn 56% · John Rose 9% · Monty Fritts 7%
Marsha Blackburn 58% · John Rose 9% · Monty Fritts 5%
Casey DeSantis 26% · Byron Donalds 23% · Wilton Simpson 2%
Byron Donalds 29% · Paul Renner 9%
Don't know 28% · Jay Pizzo 4% · David Jolly 32% · Byron Donalds 36%
Don't know 28% · Jay Pizzo 5% · David Jolly 33% · Paul Renner 34%
Don't know 39% · Wilton Simpson 2% · Jay Collins 2% · Paul Renner 7% · Byron Donalds 23% · Casey DeSantis 26%
24 shown · 24 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2022-11-04 | 631 | R+5.0 | D+4.9 | R+9.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2022-11-04 | 505 | R+7.0 | R+6.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2022-11-04 | 579 | R+2.0 | D+1.0 | R+3.0 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2022-11-04 | 560 | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2022-11-04 | 631 | D+6.0 | D+14.8 | R+8.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2022-11-04 | 505 | R+30.0 | R+25.0 | R+5.0 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_GA | Gov-G | 2022-11-04 | 579 | R+14.0 | R+7.5 | R+6.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2022-11-04 | 560 | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | R+2.7 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-29 | 747 | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GSR_GA | Sen-G | 2021-01-01 | 713 | D+2.0 | D+2.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2021-01-01 | 713 | 0 | D+1.2 | R+1.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2020-10-28 | 1,138 | D+9.0 | D+5.2 | D+3.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2020-10-28 | 993 | D+11.0 | D+1.7 | D+9.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 998 | D+14.0 | D+1.2 | D+12.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 1,138 | D+9.0 | D+7.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 993 | D+14.0 | D+2.8 | D+11.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 1,027 | D+3.7 | R+3.4 | D+7.1 |
| 2019 | 2019_Gov-GR_LA | Gov-G | 2019-11-10 | 640 | D+4.0 | D+2.7 | D+1.3 |
| 2019 | 2019_Gov-G_MS | Gov-G | 2019-10-17 | 384 | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2019 | 2019_Gov-G_KY | Gov-G | 2019-10-17 | 401 | D+19.0 | D+0.4 | D+18.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2018-10-30 | 480 | 0 | R+10.8 | D+10.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-30 | 558 | R+4.0 | R+0.1 | R+3.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2018-10-30 | 480 | R+9.0 | R+21.0 | D+12.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-30 | 558 | R+1.0 | R+0.4 | R+0.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.