Don't know 11% · Someone else 4% · Mike Rogers 39% · Abdul El-Sayed 46%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 17, 2026
- Sample
- 800 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 47
- Mean absolute error
- 5.22percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.52
- Represented cycles
- 102006–2024
- Current archive
- 9canonical records
- History span
- Oct 22, 2006through Oct 31, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Susquehanna Polling & Research · Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) · Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
47 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
9 shown · 9 total
Primary · R primary
James +28Michigan · Governor
John James 38% · Perry Johnson 10% · Aric Nesbitt 3%
- Field dates
- Jun 14, 2026
- Sample
- 175 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary
El-Sayed +2Michigan · Senate
Abdul El-Sayed 22% · Haley Stevens 20%
- Field dates
- Jun 14, 2026
- Sample
- 205 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 5% · Stacy Garrity 36% · Josh Shapiro 58%
- Field dates
- Mar 18–Mar 29, 2026
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 9% · Stacy Garrity 36% · Josh Shapiro 54%
- Field dates
- Sep 22–Sep 28, 2025
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 7% · Douglas V. Mastriano 37% · Josh Shapiro 55%
- Field dates
- Sep 22–Sep 28, 2025
- Sample
- 704 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
El-Sayed +7Michigan · Senate
Abdul El-Sayed 46% · Mike Rogers 39%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 17, 2026
- Sample
- 800 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Shapiro +22Pennsylvania · Governor
Josh Shapiro 58% · Stacy Garrity 36%
- Field dates
- Mar 18–Mar 29, 2026
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Governor
Shapiro +18Pennsylvania · Governor
Josh Shapiro 54% · Stacy Garrity 36%
- Field dates
- Sep 22–Sep 28, 2025
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
47 shown · 47 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NV · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | R+6.0 | R+3.1 | R+2.9 |
| 2024 | MI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-27 | — | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2022-10-30 | 700 | R+1.0 | D+4.9 | R+5.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2022-10-30 | 700 | D+13.6 | D+14.8 | R+1.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2022-10-26 | 500 | R+5.6 | D+0.8 | R+6.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2022-10-26 | 500 | R+1.2 | R+1.5 | D+0.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2020-11-02 | 499 | R+0.8 | D+1.2 | R+2.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-31 | 400 | R+1.0 | R+3.4 | D+2.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 450 | D+3.0 | D+0.6 | D+2.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-24 | 400 | R+4.5 | R+3.4 | R+1.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-21 | 500 | R+3.0 | D+2.4 | R+5.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-21 | 500 | R+0.4 | D+0.3 | R+0.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2020-10-18 | 500 | 0 | D+0.6 | R+0.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_PA-16 | House-G | 2018-10-30 | 405 | D+4.0 | R+4.3 | D+8.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_PA-8 | House-G | 2018-10-29 | 446 | D+17.0 | D+9.3 | D+7.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_PA-13 | House-G | 2018-10-26 | 303 | R+21.0 | R+41.0 | D+20.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_PA-9 | House-G | 2018-10-24 | 271 | R+21.0 | R+19.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_PA-11 | House-G | 2018-10-22 | 311 | R+4.0 | R+17.9 | D+13.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_PA-10 | House-G | 2018-10-20 | 366 | R+3.0 | R+2.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2016-11-01 | 681 | D+6.0 | R+1.4 | D+7.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2016-11-01 | 681 | D+2.0 | R+0.7 | D+2.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_SC | Sen-G | 2014-10-17 | 917 | R+20.0 | R+15.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-GS_SC | Sen-G | 2014-10-17 | 917 | R+27.0 | R+22.1 | R+4.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_SC | Gov-G | 2014-10-17 | 917 | R+20.0 | R+14.5 | R+5.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2012-10-30 | 800 | D+1.0 | D+9.1 | R+8.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 800 | 0 | D+5.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2012-10-23 | 1,001 | D+5.0 | D+13.0 | R+8.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-10-23 | 1,001 | R+5.0 | D+0.9 | R+5.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_FL-22 | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 750 | 0 | D+9.3 | R+9.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_FL-18 | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 752 | R+1.0 | D+0.6 | R+1.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-11-01 | 1,526 | R+4.0 | R+1.1 | R+2.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-30 | 1,527 | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | D+4.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2010-10-26 | 800 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 | D+0.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_FL-25 | House-G | 2010-10-26 | 700 | R+1.0 | R+9.6 | D+8.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2010-10-26 | 800 | R+7.0 | R+9.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-25 | 1,547 | R+2.0 | R+1.1 | R+0.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_FL-8 | House-G | 2010-10-24 | 801 | R+7.0 | R+17.9 | D+10.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_PA-17 | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 600 | D+30.0 | D+11.0 | D+19.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,514 | 0 | R+1.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_FL-22 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 800 | R+3.0 | R+8.7 | D+5.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_PA-4 | House-G | 2010-10-17 | 400 | D+12.0 | D+1.6 | D+10.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_FL-2 | House-G | 2010-10-16 | 830 | R+12.0 | R+12.3 | D+0.3 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-13 | 2,000 | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | D+4.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-GS_PA-12 | House-G | 2010-05-10 | 400 | D+6.0 | D+7.7 | R+1.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_PA-12 | House-G | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+5.0 | D+15.7 | R+10.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2008-10-17 | 700 | D+8.0 | D+10.3 | R+2.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_PA-4 | House-G | 2006-10-22 | 400 | R+4.0 | D+3.9 | R+7.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.