Call
the Map
FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

RMG Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
26
Mean absolute error
5.83percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.99
Represented cycles
22020–2024
Current archive
116canonical records
History span
Oct 15, 2020through Oct 16, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
RMG Research (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2020 · 2024

26 eligible historical polls across 2 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 116 total

Democrat +6

Generic Democrat 51% · Generic Republican 45%

Field dates
Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hong +1

Francesca Hong 44% · Tom Tiffany 43%

Field dates
Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Barnes +5

Mandela Barnes 47% · Tom Tiffany 42%

Field dates
Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Crowley +3

David Crowley 46% · Tom Tiffany 43%

Field dates
Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 49% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Jun 1–Jun 4, 2026
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Democrat +7

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 6% · Generic Republican 43% · Generic Democrat 50%

Field dates
Apr 10–Apr 14, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
Napolitan News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Tied

Dem 46% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Mar 2–Mar 4, 2026
Sample
2,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Republican +6

Don't know 14% · Generic Republican 46% · Tim Walz 40%

Field dates
Dec 10–Dec 16, 2025
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
Alpha News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2

Dem 44% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Oct 27–Oct 30, 2025
Sample
2,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Tied

Dem 47% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Aug 18–Aug 21, 2025
Sample
2,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

26 shown · 26 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-16—0R+1.4D+1.4
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-301,200D+7.0D+4.5D+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-291,200D+4.0R+3.4D+7.4
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-28800R+6.0R+9.6D+3.6
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-28800D+9.0D+1.7D+7.3
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-28800R+4.0R+5.6D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-28800D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-26800D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-25800D+7.0R+1.8D+8.8
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-25800D+1.0R+1.4D+2.4
20202020_Gov-G_NCGov-G2020-10-25800D+12.0D+4.5D+7.5
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-241,842D+7.0D+4.5D+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-21800D+2.0R+3.4D+5.4
20202020_Sen-G_IASen-G2020-10-18800D+3.0R+6.6D+9.6
20202020_Pres-G_IAPres-G2020-10-188000R+8.2D+8.2
20202020_Sen-G_MTSen-G2020-10-17800R+2.0R+10.0D+8.0
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-17800D+7.0D+2.4D+4.7
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-17800D+6.0D+0.6D+5.4
20202020_Pres-G_MTPres-G2020-10-17800R+4.0R+16.4D+12.4
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-17800D+1.0D+0.3D+0.7
20202020_House-G_MT-1House-G2020-10-178000R+12.8D+12.8
20202020_Gov-G_MTGov-G2020-10-17800R+3.0R+12.9D+9.9
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-161,265D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_Pres-G_UTPres-G2020-10-151,000R+12.0R+20.5D+8.5
20202020_House-G_UT-4House-G2020-10-15800R+1.0R+1.00
20202020_Gov-G_UTGov-G2020-10-151,000R+24.0R+32.6D+8.6

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.