Brian Bengs 33% · Mike Rounds 56%
- Field dates
- Jul 6–Jul 9, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Pollster file
Public Opinion Strategies
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 78
- Mean absolute error
- 5.37percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.75
- Represented cycles
- 131998–2022
- Current archive
- 10canonical records
- History span
- Oct 16, 1998through Oct 26, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Public Opinion Strategies (R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022
78 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
10 shown · 10 total
Aaron Ford 42% · Joe Lombardo 51%
- Field dates
- Jun 27–Jun 29, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Republican Governors Association
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Tina Kotek 44% · Christine Drazan 48%
- Field dates
- Jun 22–Jun 24, 2026
- Sample
- 600 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
Alme +19Montana · Senate
Don't know 7% · Kyle Austin 4% · Seth Bodnar 20% · Alani Bankhead 25% · Kurt Alme 44%
- Field dates
- Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- The Political Company
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Donalds +27Florida · Governor
Jay Collins 13% · Byron Donalds 40%
- Field dates
- Dec 11, 2025
- Sample
- 700 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Approval
Disapprove +20Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 40% · Disapprove 60%
- Field dates
- Apr 21–Apr 27, 2026
- Sample
- 1,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Alme +19Montana · Senate
Alani Bankhead 25% · Kurt Alme 44% · Seth Bodnar 20% · Kyle Austin 4%
- Field dates
- Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- The Political Company
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Generic ballot
Dem +3Generic ballot
Dem 44% · Rep 41%
- Field dates
- Apr 21–Apr 27, 2026
- Sample
- 1,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- CoinDesk
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Approve +2Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 51% · Disapprove 49%
- Field dates
- Feb 25–Mar 2, 2025
- Sample
- 1,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Paragon Health Institute
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot
Rep +2Generic ballot
Dem 44% · Rep 46%
- Field dates
- Feb 25–Mar 2, 2025
- Sample
- 1,000 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Paragon Health Institute
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 78 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-26 | 1,000 | D+6.0 | R+2.7 | D+8.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_NY-24 | House-G | 2020-10-17 | 400 | R+8.0 | R+10.2 | D+2.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_CA-39 | House-G | 2020-10-13 | 400 | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_CA-45 | House-G | 2018-10-16 | 400 | R+4.0 | D+4.1 | R+8.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2016-11-02 | 600 | R+5.0 | R+9.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_IN | Pres-G | 2016-11-02 | 600 | R+11.0 | R+19.2 | D+8.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_House-G_IN-9 | House-G | 2016-11-02 | 310 | R+2.0 | R+13.7 | D+11.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_IN | Gov-G | 2016-11-02 | 600 | 0 | R+6.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2014-10-27 | 600 | 0 | R+1.6 | D+1.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2014-10-26 | 600 | R+7.0 | R+15.5 | D+8.5 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NY-18 | House-G | 2014-10-24 | 400 | 0 | D+1.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_SD | Sen-G | 2014-10-19 | 500 | R+24.0 | R+20.9 | R+3.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NY-19 | House-G | 2014-10-15 | 400 | R+26.0 | R+29.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2012-10-31 | 500 | 0 | D+5.7 | R+5.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NM | Pres-G | 2012-10-31 | 500 | D+8.0 | D+10.2 | R+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2012-10-31 | 500 | R+1.0 | D+7.7 | R+8.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_NY-21 | House-G | 2012-10-25 | 400 | D+2.0 | D+2.0 | D+0.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_NY-19 | House-G | 2012-10-25 | 400 | R+10.0 | R+5.7 | R+4.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NE | Sen-G | 2012-10-24 | 600 | R+16.0 | R+15.6 | R+0.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NE | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 600 | R+18.0 | R+21.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_TN-4 | House-G | 2012-10-23 | 400 | R+13.0 | R+11.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2012-10-22 | 500 | R+1.0 | D+5.7 | R+6.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NM | Pres-G | 2012-10-22 | 500 | D+5.0 | D+10.2 | R+5.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_MI-3 | House-G | 2012-10-20 | 400 | R+14.0 | R+8.4 | R+5.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2012-10-17 | 600 | R+1.0 | D+6.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_VA-5 | House-G | 2010-10-30 | 400 | R+3.0 | R+3.8 | D+0.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_NM-1 | House-G | 2010-10-25 | 400 | R+2.0 | D+3.6 | R+5.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_ND-1 | House-G | 2010-10-25 | 400 | R+9.0 | R+9.8 | D+0.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_MN | Gov-G | 2010-10-25 | 500 | 0 | D+0.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_NM | Gov-G | 2010-10-22 | 800 | R+8.0 | R+6.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_RI-1 | House-G | 2010-10-21 | 300 | 0 | D+6.1 | R+6.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_PA-8 | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 400 | R+10.0 | R+7.0 | R+3.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_MI-3 | House-G | 2010-10-20 | 400 | R+19.0 | R+22.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_VA-2 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 400 | R+5.0 | R+10.7 | D+5.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_NY-20 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 400 | R+2.0 | R+9.7 | D+7.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_CA-47 | House-G | 2010-10-14 | 300 | 0 | D+13.7 | R+13.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_TN-4 | House-G | 2010-10-13 | 300 | R+5.0 | R+18.5 | D+13.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_MA | Gov-G | 2010-10-12 | 800 | R+7.0 | D+6.4 | R+13.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-GS_PA-12 | House-G | 2010-05-05 | 400 | R+2.0 | D+7.7 | R+9.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_LA-4 | House-G | 2008-11-18 | 400 | R+1.0 | R+0.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2008-10-30 | 600 | R+9.0 | R+2.9 | R+6.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_OK | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 500 | R+16.0 | R+17.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_PA-3 | House-G | 2008-10-23 | 400 | R+2.0 | D+2.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+13.0 | D+10.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+12.0 | D+8.9 | D+3.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2008-10-21 | 525 | D+3.0 | D+6.3 | R+3.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 525 | D+4.0 | D+9.6 | R+5.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+6.0 | D+6.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+9.0 | D+9.6 | R+0.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+16.0 | R+14.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.