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Pollster file

Lake Research Partners

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
12
Mean absolute error
4.06percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.27
Represented cycles
62006–2020
Current archive
16canonical records
History span
Oct 22, 2006through Nov 2, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Lake Research Partners (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2018 · 2020

12 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 16 total

Dembo +3

Zach Dembo 48% · Ralph Alvarado 45%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Dembo +6

Pete Lynch 1% · Jay Bowman 3% · Ralph Alvarado 40% · Zach Dembo 46%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-SD-AL

Jackley +4

Don't know 8% · Marty Jackley 47% · Nikki Gronli 43%

Field dates
Aug 26–Aug 30, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Bengs +10

Don't know 4% · Mike Rounds 41% · Brian Bengs 51%

Field dates
Aug 26–Aug 30, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Rhoden +7

Daniel P. Ahlers 44% · Larry Rhoden 51%

Field dates
Aug 26–Aug 30, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Tied

Don't know 5% · Rick Beard 4% · Brett Lindstrom 9% · Jim Pillen 40% · Lynne Walz 40%

Field dates
Sep 8–Sep 14, 2026
Sample
900 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Dembo +1

Ralph Alvarado 44% · Zach Dembo 45%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Wilpert +2

Don't know 6% · Jim Desmond 46% · Marni von Wilpert 48%

Field dates
Jul 9–Jul 14, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Cognetti +2

Paige Cognetti 47% · Rob Bresnahan 45%

Field dates
Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

12 shown · 12 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-11-022,400D+3.0D+4.5R+1.5
2020CA-4 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-13958R+4.0R+11.9D+7.9
2018AZ-8 · HouseHouse-G2018-04-154080R+4.7D+4.7
2012NH · PresidentPres-G2012-10-26400D+5.0D+5.6R+0.6
2012OH · PresidentPres-G2012-10-22600D+2.0D+3.0R+1.0
2012CA-36 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-21409D+6.0D+5.9D+0.1
2012NH · PresidentPres-G2012-10-20400D+3.0D+5.6R+2.6
2012NY-24 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16425D+2.0D+5.5R+3.5
2012WI · GovernorGov-G2012-05-266000R+6.8D+6.8
2010AZ-1 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-13500D+3.0R+6.0D+9.0
2008FL-18 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-15457R+7.0R+15.7D+8.7
2006MI · SenateSen-G2006-10-22600D+18.0D+15.7D+2.4

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.