Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
26 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 47 total
Beth Andres-Beck 1% · John Beccia 12% · Jamie Zahlaway Belsito 8% · Daniel Koh 35% · Mariah Lancaster 3% · Tram Nguyen 20%
Ty Masterson 46% · Cindy Holscher 47%
David Graham 5% · Roger Marshall 43% · Adam Hamilton 44%
Tom Barrett 47% · William Lawrence 49%
Mike Bouchard 45% · Christina Hines 45%
Bob Harvie 43% · Brian Fitzpatrick 47%
Beth Andres-Beck 4% · John Beccia 15% · Jamie Zahlaway Belsito 6% · Daniel Koh 34% · Mariah Lancaster 3% · Tram Nguyen 14%
Bridget Brink 19% · William Lawrence 38% · Matt Maasdam 27%
Jackie Auringer 39% · Pat Ryan 53%
Generic Republican 41% · Generic Democrat 46%
Mike Turner 49% · Kristina Knickerbocker 42%
Thomas McMasters 4% · Mike Turner 45% · Kristina Knickerbocker 40%
26 shown · 26 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_NY-22 | House-G | 2022-10-26 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+1.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NY-18 | House-G | 2014-10-22 | 401 | D+6.0 | D+1.9 | D+4.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NY-24 | House-G | 2014-10-21 | 400 | D+5.0 | R+19.2 | D+24.2 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_HI-1 | House-G | 2014-10-21 | 400 | D+7.0 | D+3.9 | D+3.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_NY-19 | House-G | 2014-10-18 | 401 | R+10.0 | R+29.0 | D+19.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2012-10-29 | 600 | D+8.0 | D+5.8 | D+2.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_NY-21 | House-G | 2012-10-22 | 403 | D+7.0 | D+2.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2012-10-19 | 603 | D+2.0 | D+5.8 | R+3.8 |
| 2011 | 2011_House-GS_NY-9 | House-G | 2011-08-31 | 400 | D+8.0 | R+5.2 | D+13.2 |
| 2011 | 2011_House-GS_NY-26 | House-G | 2011-05-03 | 400 | R+1.0 | D+5.0 | R+6.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 600 | R+6.0 | R+9.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_WV | Sen-G | 2010-10-19 | 804 | D+5.0 | D+10.1 | R+5.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_PA-8 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+7.0 | D+9.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-GS_PA-12 | House-G | 2010-04-28 | 400 | D+8.0 | D+7.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-GS_IL-14 | House-G | 2008-02-23 | 402 | D+4.0 | D+5.1 | R+1.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_PA-8 | House-G | 2006-10-30 | 400 | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | D+4.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+7.0 | D+9.7 | R+2.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+7.0 | D+9.7 | R+2.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_NY-20 | House-G | 2006-10-17 | 404 | D+2.0 | D+6.2 | R+4.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2004-10-25 | 700 | D+4.0 | R+1.1 | D+5.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2004-10-20 | 800 | D+2.0 | R+4.6 | D+6.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_OK | Sen-G | 2004-10-19 | 600 | D+1.0 | R+11.5 | D+12.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2004-10-18 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+4.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2004-10-18 | 600 | D+4.0 | R+3.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_WV | Pres-G | 2004-10-13 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+12.9 | D+10.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_WV | Gov-G | 2004-10-13 | 600 | D+33.0 | D+29.5 | D+3.5 |
1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.