Don't know 13% · Someone else 1% · David Jolly 39% · Byron Donalds 46%
- Field dates
- Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026
- Sample
- 1,200 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Pollster file
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 11
- Mean absolute error
- 3.72percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.45
- Represented cycles
- 52008–2022
- Current archive
- 16canonical records
- History span
- Oct 27, 2008through Oct 25, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2008 · 2014 · 2015 · 2018 · 2022
11 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 16 total
Don't know 8% · David Jolly 43% · Byron Donalds 49%
- Field dates
- Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026
- Sample
- 1,200 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Don't know 23% · Edmond Laplante 0% · Jeanne Logan Morrow 0% · Tim Harris 1% · Christine Lopez 1% · Aaron Day 1% · Chris Pappas 36% · John Sununu 37%
- Field dates
- Aug 27–Aug 30, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Leela Gray 41% · Anna Paulina Luna 49%
- Field dates
- Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
TiedMaine · Senate
Don't know 8% · Graham Platner 46% · Susan Collins 46%
- Field dates
- Jun 1–Jun 3, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Pine Tree Results
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
Collins +1Maine · Senate
Don't know 11% · Janet Mills 44% · Susan Collins 45%
- Field dates
- Jan 20–Jan 24, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Pine Tree Results
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
Collins +1Maine · Senate
Don't know 11% · Graham Platner 44% · Susan Collins 45%
- Field dates
- Jan 20–Jan 24, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Pine Tree Results
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Blackburn +17Tennessee · Governor
Marsha Blackburn 42% · John Rose 25% · Monty Fritts 22%
- Field dates
- Jul 28, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Donalds +43Florida · Governor
Jay Collins 10% · Byron Donalds 53% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 4%
- Field dates
- Jul 16, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Blackburn +31Tennessee · Governor
Marsha Blackburn 51% · John Rose 20% · Monty Fritts 12%
- Field dates
- Jun 30, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Gray +7HOU-WY-AL
Jillian Balow 8% · Bo Biteman 7% · Kevin Christensen 5% · Steve Friess 10% · David Giralt 0% · Chuck Gray 21% · Reid Rasner 14%
- Field dates
- May 16, 2026
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary
Donalds +45Florida · Governor
Jay Collins 7% · Byron Donalds 54% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 2%
- Field dates
- Apr 30, 2026
- Sample
- 420 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | AZ · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-25 | 800 | D+0.5 | D+4.9 | R+4.4 |
| 2022 | CT-5 · House | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | 0 | D+0.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2022 | CT-4 · House | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | D+16.0 | D+18.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2022 | CT-2 · House | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | D+20.5 | D+18.1 | D+2.5 |
| 2022 | AZ · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-25 | 800 | R+3.0 | D+0.7 | R+3.7 |
| 2022 | NH · Senate | Sen-G | 2022-10-18 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+9.1 | R+7.1 |
| 2022 | NH · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-18 | 600 | R+17.0 | R+15.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2018 | WV · Senate | Sen-G | 2018-10-17 | 600 | R+2.0 | D+3.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2015 | KY · Governor | Gov-G | 2015-10-15 | 500 | D+3.0 | R+8.7 | D+11.7 |
| 2014 | FL-13 · House | House-G | 2014-02-18 | 400 | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2008 | FL · President | Pres-G | 2008-10-27 | 601 | D+4.0 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.