Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
11 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 18 total
Don't know 23% · Edmond LaPlante 0% · Jeanne Logan Morrow 0% · Tim Harris 1% · Christine Lopez 1% · Aaron Day 1% · Chris Pappas 36% · John Sununu 37%
Leela Gray 41% · Anna Paulina Luna 49%
Marsha Blackburn 42% · John Rose 25% · Monty Fritts 22%
Jay Collins 10% · Byron Donalds 53% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 4%
Marsha Blackburn 51% · John Rose 20% · Monty Fritts 12%
Don't know 8% · Graham Platner 46% · Susan Collins 46%
Jillian Balow 8% · Bo Biteman 7% · Kevin Christensen 5% · Steve Friess 10% · David Giralt 0% · Chuck Gray 21% · Reid Rasner 14%
Jay Collins 7% · Byron Donalds 54% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 2%
Don't know 11% · Janet Mills 44% · Susan Collins 45%
Don't know 11% · Graham Platner 44% · Susan Collins 45%
Byron Donalds 47% · James Fishback 5% · Paul Renner 4%
Jay Collins 6% · Byron Donalds 45% · James Fishback 4% · Paul Renner 3%
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2022-10-25 | 800 | D+0.5 | D+4.9 | R+4.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_CT-5 | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | 0 | D+0.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_CT-4 | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | D+16.0 | D+18.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_CT-2 | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | D+20.5 | D+18.1 | D+2.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2022-10-25 | 800 | R+3.0 | D+0.7 | R+3.7 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2022-10-18 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+9.1 | R+7.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2022-10-18 | 600 | R+17.0 | R+15.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_WV | Sen-G | 2018-10-17 | 600 | R+2.0 | D+3.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2015 | 2015_Gov-G_KY | Gov-G | 2015-10-15 | 500 | D+3.0 | R+8.7 | D+11.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-GS_FL-13 | House-G | 2014-02-18 | 400 | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2008-10-27 | 601 | D+4.0 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.