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Pollster file

Emerson College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 230
Mean absolute error: 4.19percentage points
Historical bias: D+0.37
Represented cycles: 112013–2025
Current archive: 141canonical records
History span: Jun 20, 2013through Oct 31, 2025

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: Emerson · Emerson College (D)
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 141 total

Governor

Minnesota · Governor

Klobuchar +21.9

Amy Klobuchar 52.8% · Mike Lindell 30.9%

Field dates: Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Minnesota · Governor

Klobuchar +13.4

Amy Klobuchar 51.1% · Lisa Demuth 37.7%

Field dates: Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Minnesota · Senate

Flanagan +6.5

Peggy Flanagan 47.1% · Michele Tafoya 40.6%

Field dates: Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Minnesota · Senate

Craig +6.4

Angie Craig 46.6% · Michele Tafoya 40.2%

Field dates: Feb 6–Feb 8, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Michigan · Senate

Stevens +5.7

Haley Stevens 47.3% · Mike Rogers 41.6%

Field dates: Jan 24–Jan 25, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Michigan · Senate

Rogers +0.3

Abdul El-Sayed 42.5% · Mike Rogers 42.8%

Field dates: Jan 24–Jan 25, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Michigan · Senate

McMorrow +3.1

Mallory McMorrow 45.7% · Mike Rogers 42.6%

Field dates: Jan 24–Jan 25, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +6.4

Dem 48.1% · Rep 41.7%

Field dates: Jan 17–Jan 19, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +8.1

Approve 43.2% · Disapprove 51.3%

Field dates: Jan 17–Jan 19, 2026
Sample: 1,000 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Texas · Governor

Abbott +7.9

Greg Abbott 50.2% · Gina Hinojosa 42.3%

Field dates: Jan 10–Jan 12, 2026
Sample: 1,165 RV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar Media
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate · D primary

Texas · Senate

Talarico +9.4

Jasmine Crockett 37.6% · James Talarico 47%

Field dates: Jan 10–Jan 12, 2026
Sample: 413 RV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar Media
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Texas · Senate

Cornyn +2.8

John Cornyn 46.9% · James Talarico 44.1%

Field dates: Jan 10–Jan 12, 2026
Sample: 1,165 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 230 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2020	2020_Pres-G_IA	Pres-G	2020-10-20	435	D+0.1	R+8.2	D+8.3
2020	2020_Sen-OS_GA	Sen-G	2020-10-18	506	D+6.6	D+7.0	R+0.4
2020	2020_Sen-G_GA	Sen-G	2020-10-18	506	R+1.6	R+1.8	D+0.2
2020	2020_Pres-G_GA	Pres-G	2020-10-18	506	R+1.4	D+0.2	R+1.6
2020	2020_Sen-G_NC	Sen-G	2020-10-14	721	D+1.1	R+1.8	D+2.9
2020	2020_Pres-G_NC	Pres-G	2020-10-14	721	0	R+1.4	D+1.4
2020	2020_Gov-G_NC	Gov-G	2020-10-14	721	D+4.4	D+4.5	R+0.1
2019	2019_Gov-O_LA	Gov-G	2019-10-06	467	D+23.1	D+19.2	D+3.9
2018	2018_Sen-G_NV	Sen-G	2018-11-03	1,197	D+4.5	D+5.1	R+0.6
2018	2018_House-G_SD-1	House-G	2018-11-03	514	R+16.1	R+24.3	D+8.2
2018	2018_House-G_NV-4	House-G	2018-11-03	263	D+3.8	D+8.2	R+4.4
2018	2018_House-G_NV-3	House-G	2018-11-03	332	D+9.2	D+9.1	D+0.1
2018	2018_House-G_NV-2	House-G	2018-11-03	365	R+20.6	R+16.5	R+4.1
2018	2018_House-G_NV-1	House-G	2018-11-03	238	D+30.0	D+35.3	R+5.3
2018	2018_Gov-G_SD	Gov-G	2018-11-03	514	R+1.0	R+3.4	D+2.4
2018	2018_Gov-G_NV	Gov-G	2018-11-03	1,197	D+1.0	D+4.2	R+3.2
2018	2018_Sen-G_MO	Sen-G	2018-11-02	732	R+3.4	R+5.8	D+2.4
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-11-02	784	D+5.0	R+0.1	D+5.1
2018	2018_Sen-G_AZ	Sen-G	2018-11-02	758	D+0.7	D+2.3	R+1.6
2018	2018_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2018-11-02	784	D+5.3	R+0.4	D+5.7
2018	2018_Gov-G_AZ	Gov-G	2018-11-02	758	R+15.1	R+14.2	R+0.9
2018	2018_House-G_IA-4	House-G	2018-10-31	356	R+9.3	R+3.3	R+6.0
2018	2018_House-G_IA-3	House-G	2018-10-31	380	D+0.9	D+2.2	R+1.3
2018	2018_House-G_IA-2	House-G	2018-10-31	373	D+12.9	D+12.2	D+0.7
2018	2018_House-G_IA-1	House-G	2018-10-31	353	D+11.9	D+5.1	D+6.8
2018	2018_Gov-G_IA	Gov-G	2018-10-31	1,462	R+3.9	R+2.7	R+1.2
2018	2018_Sen-G_WV	Sen-G	2018-10-30	1,013	D+5.8	D+3.3	D+2.5
2018	2018_Sen-G_WI	Sen-G	2018-10-30	604	D+8.7	D+10.8	R+2.1
2018	2018_House-G_WV-3	House-G	2018-10-30	328	R+7.6	R+12.8	D+5.2
2018	2018_House-G_WV-2	House-G	2018-10-30	344	R+7.4	R+11.0	D+3.6
2018	2018_House-G_WV-1	House-G	2018-10-30	341	R+25.4	R+29.1	D+3.8
2018	2018_Gov-G_WI	Gov-G	2018-10-30	604	D+4.8	D+1.1	D+3.7
2018	2018_Gov-G_GA	Gov-G	2018-10-30	724	R+2.1	R+1.4	R+0.7
2018	2018_Sen-G_TX	Sen-G	2018-10-29	781	R+3.1	R+2.6	R+0.5
2018	2018_Sen-G_TN	Sen-G	2018-10-29	632	R+8.4	R+10.8	D+2.4
2018	2018_Gov-G_TX	Gov-G	2018-10-29	781	R+8.3	R+13.3	D+5.0
2018	2018_Gov-G_TN	Gov-G	2018-10-29	632	R+13.4	R+21.0	D+7.6
2018	2018_Sen-G_CT	Sen-G	2018-10-28	780	D+20.0	D+20.2	R+0.2
2018	2018_House-G_NH-2	House-G	2018-10-28	569	D+12.7	D+13.4	R+0.7
2018	2018_House-G_NH-1	House-G	2018-10-28	570	D+1.7	D+8.6	R+6.8
2018	2018_House-G_ME-2	House-G	2018-10-28	441	D+1.1	D+1.3	R+0.1
2018	2018_House-G_ME-1	House-G	2018-10-28	442	D+25.2	D+26.3	R+1.1
2018	2018_Gov-G_NH	Gov-G	2018-10-28	1,139	R+7.3	R+7.0	R+0.3
2018	2018_Gov-G_ME	Gov-G	2018-10-28	883	D+8.0	D+7.7	D+0.3
2018	2018_Gov-G_CT	Gov-G	2018-10-28	780	D+6.2	D+3.1	D+3.0
2018	2018_Sen-G_OH	Sen-G	2018-10-27	566	D+5.8	D+6.8	R+1.1
2018	2018_House-G_KS-4	House-G	2018-10-27	262	R+29.8	R+18.9	R+10.9
2018	2018_House-G_KS-3	House-G	2018-10-27	262	D+12.8	D+9.7	D+3.1
2018	2018_House-G_KS-2	House-G	2018-10-27	231	R+6.9	R+0.8	R+6.0
2018	2018_House-G_KS-1	House-G	2018-10-27	221	R+14.9	R+36.3	D+21.4

5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.