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Pollster file

Emerson College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 230
Mean absolute error: 4.19percentage points
Historical bias: D+0.37
Represented cycles: 112013–2025
Current archive: 141canonical records
History span: Jun 20, 2013through Oct 31, 2025

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: Emerson · Emerson College (D)
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 141 total

Senate · R primary

Texas · Senate

Paxton +1.3

Ken Paxton 27.4% · John Cornyn 26.1% · Wesley Hunt 15.7%

Field dates: Jan 10–Jan 12, 2026
Sample: 550 RV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar Media
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Texas · Senate

Tied

Ken Paxton 45.6% · James Talarico 45.6%

Field dates: Jan 10–Jan 12, 2026
Sample: 1,165 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate · R primary

Illinois · Senate

Tracy +2.3

R. Cary Capparelli 1.7% · Casey Chlebek 1.3% · Jeannie Evans 2.5% · Pamelia Denise Long 1.9% · Jimmy Tillman 3.3% · Don Tracy 5.6%

Field dates: Jan 3–Jan 5, 2026
Sample: 432 LV
Sponsor / client: Nexstar · WGN-TV
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate · D primary

Illinois · Senate

Krishnamoorthi +21.7

Juliana Stratton 9.7% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 31.4% · Robin Kelly 7.5% · Awisi Bustos 0.3% · Christopher Swann 0.3% · Jonathan Dean 0.9% · Bryan Maxwell 1.3% · Kevin Ryan 1.7%

Field dates: Jan 3–Jan 5, 2026
Sample: 568 LV
Sponsor / client: Nextar · WGN-TV
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Senate

Ohio · Senate

Husted +2.5

Sherrod Brown 46.3% · Jon Husted 48.8%

Field dates: Dec 6–Dec 8, 2025
Sample: 850 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Ohio · Governor

Acton +0.7

Vivek Ramaswamy 45.2% · Amy Acton 45.9%

Field dates: Dec 6–Dec 8, 2025
Sample: 850 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +10

Approve 45% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates: Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
Sample: 1,000 RV
Sponsor / client: Consensus Strategies
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Nevada · Governor

Tied

Joe Lombardo 41.1% · Aaron Ford 41.1%

Field dates: Nov 16–Nov 18, 2025
Sample: 800 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

Arizona · Governor

Hobbs +0.7

Katie Hobbs 44.1% · Andy Biggs 43.4%

Field dates: Nov 8–Nov 10, 2025
Sample: 850 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +8.3

Approve 41.1% · Disapprove 49.4%

Field dates: Nov 3–Nov 4, 2025
Sample: 1,000 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Generic ballot

Dem +3.4

Dem 43.5% · Rep 40.1%

Field dates: Nov 3–Nov 4, 2025
Sample: 1,000 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +11.2

Abigail Spanberger 55.6% · Winsome Earle-Sears 44.4%

Field dates: Oct 30–Oct 31, 2025
Sample: 880 LV
Sponsor / client: The Hill
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 230 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2022	2022_House-G_NM-3	House-G	2022-10-27	326	D+18.1	D+16.3	D+1.8
2022	2022_House-G_NM-2	House-G	2022-10-27	302	R+10.6	D+0.7	R+11.3
2022	2022_House-G_NM-1	House-G	2022-10-27	372	D+11.4	D+11.5	R+0.1
2022	2022_Gov-G_OK	Gov-G	2022-10-27	1,000	R+9.6	R+13.7	D+4.1
2022	2022_Gov-G_NM	Gov-G	2022-10-27	1,000	D+1.6	D+6.4	R+4.8
2022	2022_Sen-G_NY	Sen-G	2022-10-22	1,000	D+13.2	D+14.0	R+0.8
2022	2022_Sen-G_IL	Sen-G	2022-10-22	1,000	D+9.8	D+15.3	R+5.5
2022	2022_Gov-G_NY	Gov-G	2022-10-22	1,000	D+7.2	D+6.4	D+0.8
2022	2022_Gov-G_IL	Gov-G	2022-10-22	1,000	D+9.3	D+12.5	R+3.2
2022	2022_Sen-G_SD	Sen-G	2022-10-20	1,500	R+31.0	R+43.5	D+12.5
2022	2022_Sen-G_CT	Sen-G	2022-10-20	1,000	D+12.3	D+14.9	R+2.6
2022	2022_House-G_CT-5	House-G	2022-10-20	500	R+0.7	D+0.8	R+1.5
2022	2022_Gov-G_SD	Gov-G	2022-10-20	1,500	R+18.9	R+26.8	D+7.9
2022	2022_Gov-G_CT	Gov-G	2022-10-20	1,000	D+10.7	D+12.8	R+2.1
2022	2022_Sen-G_NH	Sen-G	2022-10-19	727	D+4.1	D+9.1	R+5.0
2022	2022_House-G_US	House-G	2022-10-19	1,000	R+4.9	R+2.7	R+2.2
2022	2022_Gov-G_NH	Gov-G	2022-10-19	727	R+12.9	R+15.6	D+2.7
2022	2022_Gov-G_TX	Gov-G	2022-10-18	1,000	R+9.7	R+10.9	D+1.2
2021	2021_Gov-G_VA	Gov-G	2021-10-23	875	D+0.9	R+1.9	D+2.8
2021	2021_Gov-G_NJ	Gov-G	2021-10-17	600	D+4.4	D+3.2	D+1.2
2021	2021_House-GS_OH-15	House-G	2021-10-15	445	R+11.1	R+16.6	D+5.5
2020	2020_Sen-GSR_GA	Sen-G	2020-12-15	605	R+2.4	D+2.1	R+4.5
2020	2020_Sen-GR_GA	Sen-G	2020-12-15	605	R+2.0	D+1.2	R+3.2
2020	2020_Sen-OS_GA	Sen-G	2020-10-30	749	D+14.4	D+7.0	D+7.4
2020	2020_Sen-G_TX	Sen-G	2020-10-30	763	R+4.0	R+9.6	D+5.6
2020	2020_Sen-G_NC	Sen-G	2020-10-30	855	D+3.2	R+1.8	D+5.0
2020	2020_Sen-G_MI	Sen-G	2020-10-30	700	D+5.8	D+1.7	D+4.1
2020	2020_Sen-G_ME	Sen-G	2020-10-30	611	D+1.8	R+8.6	D+10.4
2020	2020_Sen-G_IA	Sen-G	2020-10-30	604	D+3.1	R+6.6	D+9.7
2020	2020_Sen-G_GA	Sen-G	2020-10-30	749	D+1.3	R+1.8	D+3.1
2020	2020_Sen-GS_AZ	Sen-G	2020-10-30	732	D+2.7	D+2.4	D+0.3
2020	2020_Pres-G_WI	Pres-G	2020-10-30	751	D+7.3	D+0.6	D+6.7
2020	2020_Pres-G_TX	Pres-G	2020-10-30	763	R+1.0	R+5.6	D+4.6
2020	2020_Pres-G_PA	Pres-G	2020-10-30	823	D+4.9	D+1.2	D+3.7
2020	2020_Pres-G_OH	Pres-G	2020-10-30	656	D+0.9	R+8.0	D+8.9
2020	2020_Pres-G_NV	Pres-G	2020-10-30	720	D+1.7	D+2.4	R+0.7
2020	2020_Pres-G_NC	Pres-G	2020-10-30	855	D+0.3	R+1.4	D+1.6
2020	2020_Pres-G_N2	Pres-G	2020-10-30	806	D+2.6	D+6.5	R+3.9
2020	2020_Pres-G_MI	Pres-G	2020-10-30	700	D+6.5	D+2.8	D+3.7
2020	2020_Pres-G_ME	Pres-G	2020-10-30	611	D+11.4	D+9.1	D+2.3
2020	2020_Pres-G_M2	Pres-G	2020-10-30	301	D+3.0	R+7.4	D+10.4
2020	2020_Pres-G_M1	Pres-G	2020-10-30	310	D+19.0	D+23.1	R+4.1
2020	2020_Pres-G_IA	Pres-G	2020-10-30	604	R+1.2	R+8.2	D+7.0
2020	2020_Pres-G_GA	Pres-G	2020-10-30	749	R+0.6	D+0.2	R+0.8
2020	2020_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2020-10-30	849	D+5.8	R+3.4	D+9.2
2020	2020_Pres-G_AZ	Pres-G	2020-10-30	732	D+2.1	D+0.3	D+1.8
2020	2020_House-G_NE-2	House-G	2020-10-30	806	R+3.0	R+4.6	D+1.6
2020	2020_Gov-G_NC	Gov-G	2020-10-30	855	D+9.9	D+4.5	D+5.4
2020	2020_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2020-10-26	1,121	D+4.2	D+4.5	R+0.3
2020	2020_Sen-G_IA	Sen-G	2020-10-20	435	R+4.1	R+6.6	D+2.5

5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.