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Pollster file

Change Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
5.74percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.07
Represented cycles
32017–2020
Current archive
74canonical records
History span
May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Change Research (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2017 · 2018 · 2020

101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 74 total

Vindman +2

Alexander Vindman 47% · Ashley Moody 45%

Field dates
May 13–May 16, 2026
Sample
1,593 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jolly +4

David Jolly 46% · Byron Donalds 42%

Field dates
May 13–May 16, 2026
Sample
2,070 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 45% · Rep 42%

Field dates
May 5–May 10, 2026
Sample
2,244 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +13

Approve 43% · Disapprove 56%

Field dates
May 5–May 10, 2026
Sample
2,244 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +7

Roy Cooper 49% · Michael Whatley 42%

Field dates
May 4–May 8, 2026
Sample
957 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 47% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 7, 2026
Sample
2,702 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +14

Approve 42% · Disapprove 56%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 7, 2026
Sample
2,702 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 47% · Rep 41%

Field dates
Mar 8–Mar 12, 2026
Sample
1,540 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 43% · Rep 40%

Field dates
Feb 5–Feb 18, 2026
Sample
1,741 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +12

Approve 43% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates
Feb 5–Feb 18, 2026
Sample
1,741 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +3

Ashley Hinson 44% · Zach Wahls 41%

Field dates
Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
Sample
1,108 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +3

Ashley Hinson 44% · Josh Turek 41%

Field dates
Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
Sample
1,108 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

1 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20172017_House-GS_MT-1House-G2017-05-221,888R+5.0R+5.6D+0.6

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.