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Pollster file

Change Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
5.74percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.07
Represented cycles
32017–2020
Current archive
74canonical records
History span
May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Change Research (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2017 · 2018 · 2020

101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 74 total

Cooper +7

Roy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 43%

Field dates
Aug 3–Aug 6, 2026
Sample
915 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Cooper +9

Roy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 41%

Field dates
Jul 29–Aug 1, 2026
Sample
967 LV
Sponsor / client
Talking About Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moody +3

Alexander Vindman 43% · Ashley Moody 46%

Field dates
Jun 11–Jun 14, 2026
Sample
1,273 RV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Vindman +2

Alexander Vindman 47% · Ashley Moody 45%

Field dates
May 13–May 16, 2026
Sample
2,070 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jolly +4

David Jolly 46% · Byron Donalds 42%

Field dates
May 13–May 16, 2026
Sample
1,593 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

1 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20172017_House-GS_MT-1House-G2017-05-221,888R+5.0R+5.6D+0.6

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.