Call
the Map
FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

Change Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
5.74percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.07
Represented cycles
32017–2020
Current archive
73canonical records
History span
May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Change Research (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2017 · 2018 · 2020

101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 73 total

Cooper +5

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 9% · Michael Whatley 42% · Roy Cooper 47%

Field dates
Jan 5–Jan 7, 2026
Sample
1,105 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Tied

Dem 43% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Dec 5–Dec 10, 2025
Sample
1,520 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cornyn +8

Would not vote 4% · Don't know 6% · John Cornyn 49% · Jasmine Crockett 41%

Field dates
Nov 21–Nov 26, 2025
Sample
1,189 RV
Sponsor / client
Agave Social Welfare Fund
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Paxton +8

Would not vote 3% · Don't know 6% · Ken Paxton 50% · Jasmine Crockett 42%

Field dates
Nov 21–Nov 26, 2025
Sample
1,189 RV
Sponsor / client
Agave Social Welfare Fund
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 47% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Nov 6–Nov 10, 2025
Sample
1,572 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Race

HOU-IA-03

Democrat +3

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 13% · Generic Republican 42% · Generic Democrat 45%

Field dates
Oct 23–Oct 27, 2025
Sample
638 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 46% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Sep 28–Oct 6, 2025
Sample
1,596 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 45% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Sep 5–Sep 10, 2025
Sample
2,223 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +7

Would not vote 2% · Don't know 9% · Michael Whatley 41% · Roy Cooper 48%

Field dates
Sep 2–Sep 8, 2025
Sample
855 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Cooper +3

Would not vote 2% · Don't know 5% · Thom Tillis 45% · Roy Cooper 48%

Field dates
Mar 31–Apr 4, 2025
Sample
867 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Ricketts +1

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 8% · Dan Osborn 45% · Pete Ricketts 46%

Field dates
Mar 28–Apr 1, 2025
Sample
524 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

1 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20172017_House-GS_MT-1House-G2017-05-221,888R+5.0R+5.6D+0.6

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.