Would not vote 4% · Don't know 8% · Byron Donalds 42% · David Jolly 46%
- Field dates
- May 13–May 16, 2026
- Sample
- 1,593 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Freedom Project USA
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Change Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 101
- Mean absolute error
- 5.74percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+3.07
- Represented cycles
- 32017–2020
- Current archive
- 73canonical records
- History span
- May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Change Research (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2017 · 2018 · 2020
101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 73 total
Primary · R primary
Donalds +39Florida · Governor
Jay Collins 8% · Byron Donalds 48% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 3%
- Field dates
- May 16, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Vindman +2Florida · Senate
Would not vote 1% · Don't know 7% · Ashley Moody 45% · Alexander Vindman 47%
- Field dates
- May 13–May 16, 2026
- Sample
- 1,593 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Freedom Project USA
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 6.37% · Would not vote 1.91% · Michael Whatley 42.42% · Roy Cooper 49.29%
- Field dates
- May 4–May 8, 2026
- Sample
- 957 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Carolina Forward
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Begich +27HOU-AK-01
Would not vote 3.25% · Don't know 17.8% · John Williams 3.81% · Bill Hill 12.98% · Matt Schultz 17.38% · Nick Begich 44.78%
- Field dates
- Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026
- Sample
- 624 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Independent Candidates Action
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Grothman +3.9HOU-WI-06
Would not vote 2.35% · Don't know 18.22% · Michael Thurow 37.74% · Glenn Grothman 41.69%
- Field dates
- Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026
- Sample
- 640 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Independent Candidates Action
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Alme +1.8Montana · Senate
Would not vote 2.23% · Don't know 25.86% · Seth Bodnar 35.06% · Kurt Alme 36.84%
- Field dates
- Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Independent Candidates Action
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Cooper +10North Carolina · Senate
Roy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 40%
- Field dates
- Jan 31–Feb 4, 2026
- Sample
- 1,069 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Gary Pearce | Sam Hunt
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot
Dem +3Generic ballot
Dem 46% · Rep 43%
- Field dates
- Jan 13–Jan 19, 2026
- Sample
- 1,348 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Hinson +3Iowa · Senate
Would not vote 1% · Don't know 14% · Ashley Hinson 44% · Josh Turek 41%
- Field dates
- Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
- Sample
- 1,108 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Hinson +3Iowa · Senate
Would not vote 1% · Don't know 14% · Nathan Sage 41% · Ashley Hinson 44%
- Field dates
- Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
- Sample
- 1,108 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Hinson +3Iowa · Senate
Would not vote 2% · Don't know 13% · Zach Wahls 41% · Ashley Hinson 44%
- Field dates
- Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
- Sample
- 1,108 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
1 shown · 101 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2017_House-GS_MT-1 | House-G | 2017-05-22 | 1,888 | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | D+0.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.