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Pollster file

Change Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
101
Mean absolute error
5.74percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.07
Represented cycles
32017–2020
Current archive
73canonical records
History span
May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Change Research (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2017 · 2018 · 2020

101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 73 total

Jolly +4

Would not vote 4% · Don't know 8% · Byron Donalds 42% · David Jolly 46%

Field dates
May 13–May 16, 2026
Sample
1,593 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +39

Jay Collins 8% · Byron Donalds 48% · James Fishback 9% · Paul Renner 3%

Field dates
May 16, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Vindman +2

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 7% · Ashley Moody 45% · Alexander Vindman 47%

Field dates
May 13–May 16, 2026
Sample
1,593 LV
Sponsor / client
Freedom Project USA
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +6.9

Don't know 6.37% · Would not vote 1.91% · Michael Whatley 42.42% · Roy Cooper 49.29%

Field dates
May 4–May 8, 2026
Sample
957 LV
Sponsor / client
Carolina Forward
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-AK-01

Begich +27

Would not vote 3.25% · Don't know 17.8% · John Williams 3.81% · Bill Hill 12.98% · Matt Schultz 17.38% · Nick Begich 44.78%

Field dates
Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026
Sample
624 LV
Sponsor / client
Independent Candidates Action
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Race

HOU-WI-06

Grothman +3.9

Would not vote 2.35% · Don't know 18.22% · Michael Thurow 37.74% · Glenn Grothman 41.69%

Field dates
Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026
Sample
640 LV
Sponsor / client
Independent Candidates Action
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Alme +1.8

Would not vote 2.23% · Don't know 25.86% · Seth Bodnar 35.06% · Kurt Alme 36.84%

Field dates
Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026
Sample
616 LV
Sponsor / client
Independent Candidates Action
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +10

Roy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 40%

Field dates
Jan 31–Feb 4, 2026
Sample
1,069 RV
Sponsor / client
Gary Pearce | Sam Hunt
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 46% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Jan 13–Jan 19, 2026
Sample
1,348 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +3

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 14% · Ashley Hinson 44% · Josh Turek 41%

Field dates
Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
Sample
1,108 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +3

Would not vote 1% · Don't know 14% · Nathan Sage 41% · Ashley Hinson 44%

Field dates
Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
Sample
1,108 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +3

Would not vote 2% · Don't know 13% · Zach Wahls 41% · Ashley Hinson 44%

Field dates
Jan 8–Jan 11, 2026
Sample
1,108 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 101 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_House-G_MO-2House-G2020-11-015970R+6.4D+6.4
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-31473D+4.0R+1.8D+5.8
20202020_Sen-G_MTSen-G2020-10-31920R+4.0R+10.0D+6.0
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-31383D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
20202020_Sen-G_MESen-G2020-10-311,024D+6.0R+8.6D+14.6
20202020_Sen-G_IASen-G2020-10-311,084D+1.0R+6.6D+7.6
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-31409D+4.0D+2.4D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-31553D+8.0D+0.6D+7.4
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-311,880D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-31699D+4.0D+1.2D+2.8
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-31473D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
20202020_Pres-G_N2Pres-G2020-10-31547D+3.0D+6.5R+3.5
20202020_Pres-G_MTPres-G2020-10-31920R+5.0R+16.4D+11.4
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-31383D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
20202020_Pres-G_MEPres-G2020-10-311,024D+12.0D+9.1D+2.9
20202020_Pres-G_M2Pres-G2020-10-31475D+0.5R+7.4D+7.9
20202020_Pres-G_M1Pres-G2020-10-31549D+21.0D+23.1R+2.1
20202020_Pres-G_IAPres-G2020-10-311,0840R+8.2D+8.2
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-31806D+3.0R+3.4D+6.4
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-31409D+3.0D+0.3D+2.7
20202020_House-G_OK-5House-G2020-10-316070R+4.1D+4.1
20202020_House-G_OH-1House-G2020-10-31505R+2.0R+7.2D+5.2
20202020_House-G_NY-24House-G2020-10-31738D+2.0R+10.2D+12.2
20202020_House-G_NE-2House-G2020-10-31547D+1.0R+4.6D+5.6
20202020_House-G_ME-2House-G2020-10-31475D+9.0D+6.1D+2.9
20202020_House-G_IN-5House-G2020-10-315960R+4.1D+4.1
20202020_House-G_AR-2House-G2020-10-315860R+10.7D+10.7
20202020_Gov-G_MTGov-G2020-10-31920R+4.0R+12.9D+8.9
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-241,125D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_House-G_FL-15House-G2020-10-23530R+2.0R+10.8D+8.8
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-18521D+6.0R+1.8D+7.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-18718D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
20202020_Sen-G_AKSen-G2020-10-181,076R+3.0R+12.7D+9.7
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-18232D+11.0D+2.4D+8.7
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-18447D+8.0D+0.6D+7.4
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-182,711D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-18574D+2.0D+1.2D+0.8
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-18521D+3.0R+1.4D+4.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-18718D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-18547D+5.0R+3.4D+8.4
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-18232D+6.0D+0.3D+5.7
20202020_Sen-G_MNSen-G2020-10-141,021D+4.0D+5.2R+1.2
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-141,021D+5.0D+7.1R+2.1
20202020_House-G_IA-4House-G2020-10-14603R+5.0R+24.2D+19.2
20182018_Sen-GSR_MSSen-G2018-11-251,211R+5.0R+7.3D+2.3
20182018_Sen-OS_MSSen-G2018-11-031,003D+13.0R+0.3D+13.3
20182018_Sen-G_WYSen-G2018-11-03858R+29.0R+36.9D+7.9
20182018_Sen-G_PASen-G2018-11-031,833D+7.0D+13.1R+6.1
20182018_Sen-G_OHSen-G2018-11-03923D+10.0D+6.8D+3.1
20182018_Sen-G_NJSen-G2018-11-031,006D+10.0D+11.2R+1.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.