Would not vote 0.82% · Don't know 6.2% · Michael Whatley 42.93% · Roy Cooper 50.05%
- Field dates
- Aug 3–Aug 6, 2026
- Sample
- 915 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Carolina Forward
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
Change Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 101
- Mean absolute error
- 5.74percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+3.07
- Represented cycles
- 32017–2020
- Current archive
- 73canonical records
- History span
- May 22, 2017through Nov 1, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Change Research (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2017 · 2018 · 2020
101 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 73 total
Michael Whatley 41% · Roy Cooper 50%
- Field dates
- Jul 29–Aug 1, 2026
- Sample
- 967 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Gary Pearce | Sam Hunt
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Risch +19Idaho · Senate
Don't know 23% · Matt Loesby 1% · Natalie Fleming 3% · David Roth 13% · Todd Achilles 18% · James Risch 42%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Fulcher +21HOU-ID-01
Brendan Gomez 3% · Sarah Zabel 25% · Russ Fulcher 46%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Fulcher +21HOU-ID-01
Don't know 22% · Brendan Gomez 2% · Sarah Zabel 4% · Kaylee Peterson 25% · Russ Fulcher 46%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Little +15Idaho · Governor
Don't know 21% · John Stegner 32% · Brad Little 47%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 1,213 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Risch +16Idaho · Senate
Don't know 27% · Matt Loesby 2% · Natalie Fleming 8% · Todd Achilles 21% · James Risch 43%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Little +21Idaho · Governor
Don't know 17% · John Stegner 10% · Terri Pickens 26% · Brad Little 47%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 1,213 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Little +22Idaho · Governor
Don't know 14% · Terri Pickens 32% · Brad Little 54%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 1,213 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Race
Little +21Idaho · Governor
Don't know 17% · Generic Democrat 31% · Brad Little 52%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 1,213 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary
Lamont +21Connecticut · Governor
Ned Lamont 48% · Josh Elliott 27%
- Field dates
- Jul 26, 2026
- Sample
- 859 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot
Dem +8Generic ballot
Dem 46% · Rep 38%
- Field dates
- Jul 13–Jul 17, 2026
- Sample
- 2,006 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
1 shown · 101 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2017_House-GS_MT-1 | House-G | 2017-05-22 | 1,888 | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | D+0.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.