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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
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Joint polling team

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
46
Mean absolute error
4.47percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.48
Represented cycles
102012–2025
Current archive
38canonical records
History span
Oct 18, 2012through Oct 28, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Beacon Research · Fox News
Participating organizations
Beacon Research · Shaw & Co. Research
Cycles represented
2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

46 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 38 total

Race

HOU-CA-11

Pelosi +13

Don't know 19% · Saikat Chakrabarti 34% · Nancy Pelosi 47%

Field dates
Sep 12–Sep 20, 2025
Sample
600 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Pingree +11

Hannah Pingree 49% · Bobby Charles 38% · Rick Bennett 9%

Field dates
Aug 6–Aug 10, 2026
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Fox News
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

46 shown · 46 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-28—D+7.0D+14.4R+7.4
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-14—D+5.0D+14.4R+9.4
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+2.0R+1.7D+3.7
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+1.0R+3.2D+4.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+3.0R+1.4D+4.4
20222022_Sen-G_WISen-G2022-10-281,000R+3.0R+1.0R+2.0
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-281,005D+3.0D+4.9R+1.9
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-10-281,002D+1.0D+1.0D+0.0
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-10-281,003D+2.0D+4.9R+2.9
20222022_Gov-G_WIGov-G2022-10-281,000R+1.0D+3.4R+4.4
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-281,005D+16.0D+14.8D+1.2
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-10-281,002R+6.0R+7.5D+1.5
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-10-281,003R+1.0D+0.7R+1.7
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-261,015R+8.0R+1.9R+6.1
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-12726D+5.0R+1.9D+6.9
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-281,246D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-191,032D+8.0D+1.7D+6.3
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-191,037D+5.0D+0.6D+4.4
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-191,045D+5.0D+1.2D+3.8
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-191,018R+3.0R+8.0D+5.0
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-191,032D+12.0D+2.8D+9.2
20182018_Sen-G_TNSen-G2018-10-29718R+9.0R+10.8D+1.8
20182018_Sen-G_NDSen-G2018-10-29789R+9.0R+10.9D+1.9
20182018_Sen-G_MOSen-G2018-10-297410R+5.8D+5.8
20182018_Sen-G_INSen-G2018-10-29722D+7.0R+5.9D+12.9
20182018_House-G_ND-1House-G2018-10-29789R+22.0R+24.7D+2.7
20182018_Gov-G_TNGov-G2018-10-29718R+17.0R+21.0D+4.0
20182018_Sen-G_AZSen-G2018-10-286430D+2.3R+2.3
20182018_Gov-G_AZGov-G2018-10-28643R+18.0R+14.2R+3.8
20172017_Sen-GS_ALSen-G2017-12-091,127D+10.0D+1.6D+8.3
20172017_Gov-G_VAGov-G2017-11-041,239D+5.0D+8.9R+3.9
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-051,295D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-11-051,295R+1.0R+1.1D+0.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-021,107D+1.5D+2.1R+0.6
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-241,221D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-241,221D+2.0R+1.1D+3.1
20142014_Sen-G_NCSen-G2014-10-29909D+1.0R+1.6D+2.6
20142014_Sen-G_IASen-G2014-10-29911R+1.0R+8.3D+7.3
20142014_Gov-G_OHGov-G2014-10-29803R+15.0R+30.6D+15.6
20142014_Gov-G_KSGov-G2014-10-29907D+6.0R+3.7D+9.7
20142014_Gov-G_IAGov-G2014-10-29911R+17.0R+21.7D+4.7
20142014_House-G_USHouse-G2014-10-26734D+1.0R+5.9D+6.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-291,1280D+3.9R+3.9
20122012_Pres-G_VAPres-G2012-10-241,126R+2.0D+3.9R+5.9
20122012_Pres-G_OHPres-G2012-10-181,131D+3.0D+3.0D+0.0
20122012_Pres-G_FLPres-G2012-10-181,130R+3.0D+0.9R+3.9

2 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.