Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
11 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
9 shown · 21 total
Tom Begich 41% · Bernadette Wilson 22% · Click Bishop 19% · Dave Bronson 19%
Mary Peltola 50.8% · Dan Sullivan 47.3%
Mary Peltola 52% · Dan Sullivan 48%
Tom Begich 54% · Bernadette Wilson 46%
Tom Begich 44% · Bernadette Wilson 31% · Click Bishop 25%
Mary Peltola 52.4% · Dan Sullivan 47.6%
Mary Peltola 48% · Dan Sullivan 46.4%
Mary Peltola 48% · Dan Sullvian 46%
Dan Sullivan 46.7% · Mary Peltola 42.5%
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2022-10-21 | 1,276 | D+18.4 | D+22.8 | R+4.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2022-10-21 | 1,276 | D+23.5 | D+22.9 | D+0.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2018-10-28 | 500 | D+1.0 | R+6.6 | D+7.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AK | Gov-G | 2018-10-28 | 500 | R+0.2 | R+7.0 | D+6.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AK | Gov-G | 2018-10-21 | 500 | R+4.6 | R+7.0 | D+2.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2014-10-25 | 437 | D+7.3 | R+2.1 | D+9.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2014-10-25 | 437 | D+1.9 | R+10.0 | D+11.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+1.0 | D+1.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_AK | Pres-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | R+11.0 | R+21.6 | D+10.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+8.0 | R+5.2 | D+13.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2004-10-16 | 548 | D+1.6 | R+3.0 | D+4.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.