Generic ballot
Dem 45% · Rep 42%
- Field dates
- Mar 20–Mar 23, 2026
- Sample
- 1,501 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
447 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 428 total
Dem 45% · Rep 42%
Don't know 14% · Someone else 0% · Shannon Bray 4% · Michael Whatley 34% · Roy Cooper 48%
Dem 44% · Rep 40%
Dem 40% · Rep 36%
Dem 45% · Rep 42%
Dem 40% · Rep 33%
Dem 45% · Rep 41%
Dem 39% · Rep 33%
Dem 39% · Rep 31%
Dem 44% · Rep 38%
Dem 44% · Rep 40%
Dem 36% · Rep 34%
50 shown · 447 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 779 | R+9.0 | R+9.0 | R+0.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 805 | R+3.0 | R+2.0 | R+1.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_NY | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 826 | D+30.0 | D+29.3 | D+0.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 826 | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | D+4.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CT | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 783 | D+4.0 | D+0.6 | D+3.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2010-10-27 | 814 | D+9.0 | D+12.9 | R+3.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_US | House-G | 2010-10-25 | 1,147 | R+8.0 | R+6.8 | R+1.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_US | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 742 | R+7.5 | R+6.8 | R+0.7 |
| 2009 | 2009_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2009-10-29 | 742 | R+13.0 | R+17.4 | D+4.4 |
| 2009 | 2009_Gov-G_NJ | Gov-G | 2009-10-29 | 780 | D+2.0 | R+3.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 1,000 | D+7.0 | D+7.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_WY | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 246 | R+43.0 | R+51.4 | D+8.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_WV | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 404 | D+18.0 | D+27.5 | R+9.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 772 | D+25.0 | D+31.3 | R+6.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 972 | R+12.0 | R+12.0 | R+0.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 653 | R+23.0 | R+33.5 | D+10.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_SD | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 352 | D+25.0 | D+25.0 | D+0.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_SC | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 728 | R+16.0 | R+15.3 | R+0.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_RI | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 365 | D+39.0 | D+46.8 | R+7.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_OR | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 698 | D+1.0 | D+3.4 | R+2.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_OK | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 491 | R+11.0 | R+17.5 | D+6.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NM | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 457 | D+21.0 | D+22.7 | R+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 777 | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 516 | D+8.0 | D+6.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NE | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 407 | R+19.0 | R+17.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 955 | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 368 | D+28.0 | D+45.8 | R+17.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MS | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 417 | R+28.0 | R+22.9 | R+5.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 699 | D+1.0 | D+0.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 973 | D+23.0 | D+28.8 | R+5.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_ME | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 486 | R+20.0 | R+22.8 | D+2.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MA | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 705 | D+23.0 | D+35.0 | R+12.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_LA | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 436 | D+13.0 | D+6.4 | D+6.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 486 | R+7.0 | R+5.9 | R+1.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_KS | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 499 | R+24.0 | R+23.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 783 | D+23.0 | D+39.3 | R+16.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_ID | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 372 | R+25.0 | R+23.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 795 | D+20.0 | D+25.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 910 | R+6.0 | R+2.9 | R+3.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_DE | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 346 | D+27.0 | D+29.4 | R+2.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 685 | D+15.0 | D+10.3 | D+4.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_AL | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 452 | R+28.0 | R+26.9 | R+1.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 358 | D+2.0 | D+1.3 | D+0.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-GS_WY | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 246 | R+34.0 | R+46.9 | D+12.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-GS_MS | Sen-G | 2008-10-25 | 417 | R+8.0 | R+9.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WY | Pres-G | 2008-10-25 | 246 | R+38.0 | R+32.4 | R+5.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WV | Pres-G | 2008-10-25 | 404 | R+9.0 | R+13.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2008-10-25 | 976 | D+12.0 | D+13.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2008-10-25 | 797 | D+10.0 | D+17.2 | R+7.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_VT | Pres-G | 2008-10-25 | 275 | D+30.0 | D+37.2 | R+7.2 |
4 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.