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FORECAST54 DAYS OUT
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Pollster file

YouGov

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
447
Mean absolute error
4.60percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.01
Represented cycles
142004–2025
Current archive
428canonical records
History span
Oct 12, 2004through Oct 28, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
CBS News/YouGov · CES/YouGov · Rose Institute/YouGov · The Economist/YouGov · University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov · YouGov/Cooperative Election Study · YouGov/The Economist
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

447 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 428 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 40% · Rep 32%

Field dates
Aug 7–Aug 10, 2026
Sample
1,588 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 46% · Rep 40%

Field dates
Aug 7–Aug 10, 2026
Sample
1,419 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 41% · Rep 33%

Field dates
Jul 31–Aug 3, 2026
Sample
1,607 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 46% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Jul 31–Aug 3, 2026
Sample
1,472 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +14

Would not vote 8% · Don't know 8% · Someone else 1% · Michael Dublin 1% · Shannon Bray 2% · Roy Cooper 47% · Michael Whatley 33%

Field dates
Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026
Sample
800 A
Sponsor / client
Elon University
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +11

Don't know 2% · Someone else 0% · Michael Dublin 1% · Shannon Bray 2% · Michael Whatley 42% · Roy Cooper 53%

Field dates
Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026
Sample
466 LV
Sponsor / client
Elon University
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cooper +16

Would not vote 3% · Don't know 7% · Someone else 1% · Michael Dublin 2% · Shannon Bray 1% · Roy Cooper 51% · Michael Whatley 35%

Field dates
Jul 23–Jul 31, 2026
Sample
717 RV
Sponsor / client
Elon University
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 46% · Rep 42%

Field dates
Jul 25–Jul 27, 2026
Sample
1,405 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 40% · Rep 34%

Field dates
Jul 25–Jul 27, 2026
Sample
1,557 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 47% · Rep 40%

Field dates
Jul 22–Jul 24, 2026
Sample
1,474 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 39% · Rep 33%

Field dates
Jul 17–Jul 20, 2026
Sample
1,602 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 46% · Rep 41%

Field dates
Jul 17–Jul 20, 2026
Sample
1,432 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 447 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20102010_Gov-G_PAGov-G2010-10-27779R+9.0R+9.0R+0.0
20102010_Gov-G_OHGov-G2010-10-27805R+3.0R+2.0R+1.0
20102010_Gov-G_NYGov-G2010-10-27826D+30.0D+29.3D+0.7
20102010_Gov-G_FLGov-G2010-10-27826D+3.0R+1.1D+4.2
20102010_Gov-G_CTGov-G2010-10-27783D+4.0D+0.6D+3.4
20102010_Gov-G_CAGov-G2010-10-27814D+9.0D+12.9R+3.9
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-251,147R+8.0R+6.8R+1.2
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-18742R+7.5R+6.8R+0.7
20092009_Gov-G_VAGov-G2009-10-29742R+13.0R+17.4D+4.4
20092009_Gov-G_NJGov-G2009-10-29780D+2.0R+3.6D+5.6
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-261,000D+7.0D+7.3R+0.3
20082008_Sen-G_WYSen-G2008-10-25246R+43.0R+51.4D+8.4
20082008_Sen-G_WVSen-G2008-10-25404D+18.0D+27.5R+9.5
20082008_Sen-G_VASen-G2008-10-25772D+25.0D+31.3R+6.3
20082008_Sen-G_TXSen-G2008-10-25972R+12.0R+12.0R+0.0
20082008_Sen-G_TNSen-G2008-10-25653R+23.0R+33.5D+10.5
20082008_Sen-G_SDSen-G2008-10-25352D+25.0D+25.0D+0.0
20082008_Sen-G_SCSen-G2008-10-25728R+16.0R+15.3R+0.7
20082008_Sen-G_RISen-G2008-10-25365D+39.0D+46.8R+7.8
20082008_Sen-G_ORSen-G2008-10-25698D+1.0D+3.4R+2.4
20082008_Sen-G_OKSen-G2008-10-25491R+11.0R+17.5D+6.5
20082008_Sen-G_NMSen-G2008-10-25457D+21.0D+22.7R+1.7
20082008_Sen-G_NJSen-G2008-10-25777D+14.0D+14.1R+0.1
20082008_Sen-G_NHSen-G2008-10-25516D+8.0D+6.3D+1.7
20082008_Sen-G_NESen-G2008-10-25407R+19.0R+17.5R+1.5
20082008_Sen-G_NCSen-G2008-10-25955D+6.0D+8.5R+2.5
20082008_Sen-G_MTSen-G2008-10-25368D+28.0D+45.8R+17.8
20082008_Sen-G_MSSen-G2008-10-25417R+28.0R+22.9R+5.1
20082008_Sen-G_MNSen-G2008-10-25699D+1.0D+0.0D+1.0
20082008_Sen-G_MISen-G2008-10-25973D+23.0D+28.8R+5.8
20082008_Sen-G_MESen-G2008-10-25486R+20.0R+22.8D+2.8
20082008_Sen-G_MASen-G2008-10-25705D+23.0D+35.0R+12.0
20082008_Sen-G_LASen-G2008-10-25436D+13.0D+6.4D+6.6
20082008_Sen-G_KYSen-G2008-10-25486R+7.0R+5.9R+1.1
20082008_Sen-G_KSSen-G2008-10-25499R+24.0R+23.6R+0.4
20082008_Sen-G_ILSen-G2008-10-25783D+23.0D+39.3R+16.3
20082008_Sen-G_IDSen-G2008-10-25372R+25.0R+23.6R+1.4
20082008_Sen-G_IASen-G2008-10-25795D+20.0D+25.4R+5.4
20082008_Sen-G_GASen-G2008-10-25910R+6.0R+2.9R+3.1
20082008_Sen-G_DESen-G2008-10-25346D+27.0D+29.4R+2.4
20082008_Sen-G_COSen-G2008-10-25685D+15.0D+10.3D+4.7
20082008_Sen-G_ALSen-G2008-10-25452R+28.0R+26.9R+1.1
20082008_Sen-G_AKSen-G2008-10-25358D+2.0D+1.3D+0.8
20082008_Sen-GS_WYSen-G2008-10-25246R+34.0R+46.9D+12.9
20082008_Sen-GS_MSSen-G2008-10-25417R+8.0R+9.9D+1.9
20082008_Pres-G_WYPres-G2008-10-25246R+38.0R+32.4R+5.6
20082008_Pres-G_WVPres-G2008-10-25404R+9.0R+13.1D+4.1
20082008_Pres-G_WIPres-G2008-10-25976D+12.0D+13.9R+1.9
20082008_Pres-G_WAPres-G2008-10-25797D+10.0D+17.2R+7.2
20082008_Pres-G_VTPres-G2008-10-25275D+30.0D+37.2R+7.2

4 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.