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FORECAST54 DAYS OUT
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Pollster file

YouGov

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
447
Mean absolute error
4.60percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.01
Represented cycles
142004–2025
Current archive
428canonical records
History span
Oct 12, 2004through Oct 28, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
CBS News/YouGov · CES/YouGov · Rose Institute/YouGov · The Economist/YouGov · University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov · YouGov/Cooperative Election Study · YouGov/The Economist
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

447 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 428 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +11

Dem 49% · Rep 38%

Field dates
Sep 4–Sep 8, 2026
Sample
1,015 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 42% · Rep 35%

Field dates
Sep 4–Sep 8, 2026
Sample
1,464 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 46% · Rep 39%

Field dates
Aug 14–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
1,449 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +7

Dem 39% · Rep 32%

Field dates
Aug 14–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
1,610 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Talarico +3

Don't know 14% · Someone else 1% · Ted Brown 3% · Ken Paxton 39% · James Talarico 42%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 13, 2026
Sample
1,200 RV
Sponsor / client
University of Texas
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Abbott +5

Don't know 10% · Someone else 2% · Pat Dixon 3% · Gina Hinojosa 40% · Greg Abbott 45%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 13, 2026
Sample
1,200 RV
Sponsor / client
University of Texas
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Markey +21

Would not vote 3% · Don't know 15% · Ed Markey 51% · John Deaton 30%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moulton +24

Would not vote 3% · Don't know 22% · Seth Moulton 49% · John Deaton 25%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Healey +19

Would not vote 3% · Don't know 14% · Brian Shortsleeve 32% · Maura Healey 51%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Healey +20

Would not vote 2% · Don't know 12% · Mike Minogue 33% · Maura Healey 53%

Field dates
Aug 5–Aug 12, 2026
Sample
800 RV
Sponsor / client
UMass Amherst | WCVB-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

47 shown · 447 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20062006_Sen-G_WVSen-G2006-11-01301D+34.0D+54.1R+20.1
20062006_Sen-G_WISen-G2006-11-01502D+45.0D+37.9D+7.2
20062006_Sen-G_WASen-G2006-11-01804D+14.0D+16.9R+2.9
20062006_Sen-G_VASen-G2006-11-018020D+0.4R+0.4
20062006_Sen-G_UTSen-G2006-11-01402R+32.0R+31.3R+0.7
20062006_Sen-G_TXSen-G2006-11-011,004R+36.0R+25.6R+10.3
20062006_Sen-G_TNSen-G2006-11-01502R+5.0R+2.7R+2.3
20062006_Sen-G_PASen-G2006-11-011,005D+16.0D+17.4R+1.4
20062006_Sen-G_OHSen-G2006-11-011,003D+18.0D+12.3D+5.7
20062006_Sen-G_NVSen-G2006-11-01402R+11.0R+14.6D+3.6
20062006_Sen-G_NJSen-G2006-11-01500D+6.0D+16.0R+10.0
20062006_Sen-G_MOSen-G2006-11-018020D+2.3R+2.3
20062006_Sen-G_MNSen-G2006-11-01501D+18.0D+20.1R+2.1
20062006_Sen-G_MISen-G2006-11-01800D+15.0D+15.7R+0.7
20062006_Sen-G_MDSen-G2006-11-01802D+6.0D+10.0R+4.0
20062006_Sen-G_MASen-G2006-11-01799D+40.0D+38.8D+1.2
20062006_Sen-G_FLSen-G2006-11-011,005D+26.0D+22.2D+3.8
20062006_Sen-G_CASen-G2006-11-011,015D+32.0D+24.4D+7.6
20062006_Sen-G_AZSen-G2006-11-01798R+4.0R+9.8D+5.8
20062006_Gov-G_WIGov-G2006-11-01502D+10.0D+7.4D+2.6
20062006_Gov-G_TNGov-G2006-11-01502D+32.0D+38.9R+6.9
20062006_Gov-G_SCGov-G2006-11-01399R+12.0R+10.3R+1.7
20062006_Gov-G_PAGov-G2006-11-011,005D+24.0D+20.7D+3.3
20062006_Gov-G_ORGov-G2006-11-01502D+8.0D+8.0D+0.0
20062006_Gov-G_OHGov-G2006-11-011,003D+27.0D+23.9D+3.1
20062006_Gov-G_NYGov-G2006-11-011,011D+45.0D+40.8D+4.2
20062006_Gov-G_NVGov-G2006-11-01402R+7.0R+4.2R+2.9
20062006_Gov-G_MNGov-G2006-11-01501D+4.0R+1.0D+5.0
20062006_Gov-G_MIGov-G2006-11-01800D+12.0D+14.1R+2.1
20062006_Gov-G_MDGov-G2006-11-01802D+2.0D+6.5R+4.5
20062006_Gov-G_MAGov-G2006-11-01799D+29.0D+20.3D+8.7
20062006_Gov-G_ILGov-G2006-11-01800D+22.0D+10.5D+11.5
20062006_Gov-G_IAGov-G2006-11-01301D+8.0D+9.7R+1.7
20062006_Gov-G_GAGov-G2006-11-01804R+17.0R+19.7D+2.7
20062006_Gov-G_FLGov-G2006-11-011,005R+12.0R+7.1R+4.9
20062006_Gov-G_CTGov-G2006-11-01401R+32.0R+27.8R+4.2
20062006_Gov-G_COGov-G2006-11-01500D+20.0D+16.8D+3.2
20062006_Gov-G_CAGov-G2006-11-011,015R+10.0R+17.0D+7.0
20062006_Gov-G_AZGov-G2006-11-01798D+16.0D+27.1R+11.1
20062006_Gov-G_ALGov-G2006-11-01505R+16.0R+16.0D+0.0
20062006_Sen-G_CASen-G2006-10-23877D+18.0D+24.4R+6.4
20062006_Gov-G_CAGov-G2006-10-23877R+10.0R+17.0D+7.0
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-312,164D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-262,588D+5.0R+2.5D+7.5
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-192,535D+1.0R+2.5D+3.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-192,535D+8.0R+2.7D+10.7
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-121,711D+1.0R+2.5D+3.5

4 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.