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Pollster file

St. Pete Polls

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
27
Mean absolute error
4.74percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.30
Represented cycles
72012–2025
Current archive
14canonical records
History span
Oct 16, 2012through Mar 25, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2025

27 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 14 total

Donalds +0.1

Don't know 6.9% · Someone else 3.9% · David Jolly 44.6% · Byron Donalds 44.7%

Field dates
Oct 5–Oct 7, 2026
Sample
836 LV
Sponsor / client
Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moody +1.9

Don't know 6% · Someone else 2.3% · Angie Nixon 44.9% · Ashley Moody 46.8%

Field dates
Oct 5–Oct 7, 2026
Sample
836 LV
Sponsor / client
Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Donalds +0.1

Don't know 8.9% · Someone else 4.3% · David Jolly 43.4% · Byron Donalds 43.5%

Field dates
Sep 15–Sep 17, 2026
Sample
913 LV
Sponsor / client
Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moody +0.4

Don't know 7.1% · Someone else 2.9% · Angie Nixon 44.8% · Ashley Moody 45.2%

Field dates
Sep 15–Sep 17, 2026
Sample
913 LV
Sponsor / client
Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Castor +8.7

Don't know 16.4% · Kathy Castor 46.2% · Mike Beltran 37.5%

Field dates
Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026
Sample
469 LV
Sponsor / client
Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Castor +7.7

Don't know 15.3% · Kathy Castor 46.2% · Kevin Steele 38.5%

Field dates
Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026
Sample
469 LV
Sponsor / client
Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida’s 7th · House

Mills +16

Ryan Elijah 14% · Mike Johnson 7% · Cory Mills 30% · Sarah Ulrich 8%

Field dates
Aug 4, 2026
Sample
304 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary

Florida’s 24th · House

Gilbert +3

Oliver Gilbert 27% · Shevrin Jones 24% · Kendrick Meek Jr. 10%

Field dates
Jul 17, 2026
Sample
303 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida’s 14th · House

Beltran +12

Mike Beltran 30% · Robert Rochford 1% · Kevin Steele 18% · Bea Valenti 2%

Field dates
Jul 15, 2026
Sample
376 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +26

Casey DeSantis 21% · Byron Donalds 47%

Field dates
Oct 15, 2025
Sample
1,034 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +35

Jay Collins 4% · Byron Donalds 39% · Paul Renner 3%

Field dates
Oct 15, 2025
Sample
1,034 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

27 shown · 27 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025sp2025-FL06House-SP2025-03-25—R+4.0R+14.0D+10.0
2022FL-13 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-27509R+0.6R+8.1D+7.5
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-302,758D+1.1R+3.4D+4.5
2020FL-13 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-281,280D+16.2D+6.1D+10.1
2020FL · PresidentPres-G2020-10-222,527D+1.5R+3.4D+4.9
2020FL-15 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-15943R+8.0R+10.8D+2.8
2018FL-15 · HouseHouse-G2018-11-051,194R+1.9R+6.0D+4.1
2018FL · SenateSen-G2018-11-043,088D+3.7R+0.1D+3.8
2018FL · GovernorGov-G2018-11-043,088D+4.1R+0.4D+4.5
2018FL · SenateSen-G2018-11-022,733R+1.6R+0.1R+1.5
2018FL · GovernorGov-G2018-11-022,733D+2.1R+0.4D+2.5
2018FL · SenateSen-G2018-10-312,470D+1.9R+0.1D+2.0
2018FL · SenateSen-G2018-10-211,575R+0.3R+0.1R+0.2
2018FL · GovernorGov-G2018-10-211,575D+1.0R+0.4D+1.4
2018FL · SenateSen-G2018-10-161,974R+1.4R+0.1R+1.3
2018FL · GovernorGov-G2018-10-161,974D+1.1R+0.4D+1.5
2016FL-13 · HouseHouse-G2016-11-06944D+5.0D+3.8D+1.2
2016FL-13 · HouseHouse-G2016-11-011,066D+3.0D+3.8R+0.8
2016FL-13 · HouseHouse-G2016-10-231,087D+3.0D+3.8R+0.8
2014FL · GovernorGov-G2014-10-171,855D+1.4R+1.1D+2.5
2014FL-13 · HouseHouse-G2014-02-251,2690R+1.9D+1.9
2012FL-9 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16612D+4.5D+25.0R+20.5
2012FL-26 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16469R+2.5D+10.6R+13.1
2012FL-22 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16557D+3.2D+9.3R+6.0
2012FL-2 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16770R+0.7R+5.5D+4.8
2012FL-18 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16586R+9.1D+0.6R+9.7
2012FL-10 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-16680R+7.7R+3.5R+4.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.