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Pollster file

St. Pete Polls

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 27
Mean absolute error: 4.74percentage points
Historical bias: D+0.30
Represented cycles: 72012–2025
Current archive: 10canonical records
History span: Oct 16, 2012through Mar 25, 2025

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2025

27 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

10 shown · 10 total

Primary · R primary

FL-07 · House

Mills +16

Ryan Elijah 14% · Mike Johnson 7% · Cory Mills 30% · Sarah Ulrich 8%

Field dates: Aug 4, 2026
Sample: 304 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · D primary

FL-24 · House

Gilbert +3

Oliver Gilbert 27% · Shevrin Jones 24% · Kendrick Meek Jr. 10%

Field dates: Jul 17, 2026
Sample: 303 RV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

HOU-FL-14

Castor +8.7

Don't know 16.4% · Kathy Castor 46.2% · Mike Beltran 37.5%

Field dates: Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026
Sample: 469 LV
Sponsor / client: Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

FL-14 · House

Beltran +12

Mike Beltran 30% · Robert Rochford 1% · Kevin Steele 18% · Bea Valenti 2%

Field dates: Jul 15, 2026
Sample: 376 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Race

HOU-FL-14

Castor +7.7

Don't know 15.3% · Kathy Castor 46.2% · Kevin Steele 38.5%

Field dates: Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026
Sample: 469 LV
Sponsor / client: Florida Politics
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

FL-16 · House

Gruters +36

Sydney Gruters 49% · Ed Pope 7% · Eddie Speir 13%

Field dates: May 12, 2026
Sample: 441 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +26

Casey DeSantis 21% · Byron Donalds 47%

Field dates: Oct 15, 2025
Sample: 1,034 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +35

Jay Collins 4% · Byron Donalds 39% · Paul Renner 3%

Field dates: Oct 15, 2025
Sample: 1,034 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +40

Jay Collins 12% · Byron Donalds 52%

Field dates: Oct 15, 2025
Sample: 1,034 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +8

Casey DeSantis 27% · Byron Donalds 35% · Wilton Simpson 3%

Field dates: Jul 10, 2025
Sample: 831 LV
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

27 shown · 27 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2025	sp2025-FL06	House-SP	2025-03-25	—	R+4.0	R+14.0	D+10.0
2022	2022_House-G_FL-13	House-G	2022-10-27	509	R+0.6	R+8.1	D+7.5
2020	2020_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2020-10-30	2,758	D+1.1	R+3.4	D+4.5
2020	2020_House-G_FL-13	House-G	2020-10-28	1,280	D+16.2	D+6.1	D+10.1
2020	2020_Pres-G_FL	Pres-G	2020-10-22	2,527	D+1.5	R+3.4	D+4.9
2020	2020_House-G_FL-15	House-G	2020-10-15	943	R+8.0	R+10.8	D+2.8
2018	2018_House-G_FL-15	House-G	2018-11-05	1,194	R+1.9	R+6.0	D+4.1
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-11-04	3,088	D+3.7	R+0.1	D+3.8
2018	2018_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2018-11-04	3,088	D+4.1	R+0.4	D+4.5
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-11-02	2,733	R+1.6	R+0.1	R+1.5
2018	2018_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2018-11-02	2,733	D+2.1	R+0.4	D+2.5
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-10-31	2,470	D+1.9	R+0.1	D+2.0
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-10-21	1,575	R+0.3	R+0.1	R+0.2
2018	2018_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2018-10-21	1,575	D+1.0	R+0.4	D+1.4
2018	2018_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2018-10-16	1,974	R+1.4	R+0.1	R+1.3
2018	2018_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2018-10-16	1,974	D+1.1	R+0.4	D+1.5
2016	2016_House-G_FL-13	House-G	2016-11-06	944	D+5.0	D+3.8	D+1.2
2016	2016_House-G_FL-13	House-G	2016-11-01	1,066	D+3.0	D+3.8	R+0.8
2016	2016_House-G_FL-13	House-G	2016-10-23	1,087	D+3.0	D+3.8	R+0.8
2014	2014_Gov-G_FL	Gov-G	2014-10-17	1,855	D+1.4	R+1.1	D+2.5
2014	2014_House-GS_FL-13	House-G	2014-02-25	1,269	0	R+1.9	D+1.9
2012	2012_House-G_FL-9	House-G	2012-10-16	612	D+4.5	D+25.0	R+20.5
2012	2012_House-G_FL-26	House-G	2012-10-16	469	R+2.5	D+10.6	R+13.1
2012	2012_House-G_FL-22	House-G	2012-10-16	557	D+3.2	D+9.3	R+6.0
2012	2012_House-G_FL-2	House-G	2012-10-16	770	R+0.7	R+5.5	D+4.8
2012	2012_House-G_FL-18	House-G	2012-10-16	586	R+9.1	D+0.6	R+9.7
2012	2012_House-G_FL-10	House-G	2012-10-16	680	R+7.7	R+3.5	R+4.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.