Don't know 17% · Abdul El-Sayed 41% · Mike Rogers 42%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 640 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Pollster file
SoCal Strategies
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 9
- Mean absolute error
- 4.24percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.22
- Represented cycles
- 22024–2025
- Current archive
- 13canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2024through Oct 29, 2025
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- SoCal Strategies (R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2024 · 2025
9 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 13 total
Don't know 14% · Haley Stevens 44% · Mike Rogers 40%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 640 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Primary · D primary
El-Sayed +17Michigan · Senate
Abdul El-Sayed 56% · Haley Stevens 39%
- Field dates
- Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 437 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
Abbott +11.7Texas · Governor
Don't know 3.89% · Gina Hinojosa 42.21% · Greg Abbott 53.89%
- Field dates
- Jun 21, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
Paxton +1.5Texas · Senate
Don't know 4.41% · James Talarico 47.05% · Ken Paxton 48.53%
- Field dates
- Jun 21, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Senate
Stevens +2Michigan · Senate
Haley Stevens 44% · Mike Rogers 42%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 640 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Senate
Rogers +1Michigan · Senate
Abdul El-Sayed 41% · Mike Rogers 42%
- Field dates
- Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026
- Sample
- 640 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Governor
Abbott +10.7Texas · Governor
Greg Abbott 53.9% · Gina Hinojosa 43.2%
- Field dates
- Jun 21, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Senate
Paxton +1.4Texas · Senate
Ken Paxton 48.5% · James Talarico 47.1%
- Field dates
- Jun 21, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Governor
Spanberger +10GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 53% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43%
- Field dates
- Oct 28–Oct 29, 2025
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Governor
Sherrill +7GOV-NJ
Mikie Sherrill 52% · Jack Ciattarelli 45%
- Field dates
- Oct 28–Oct 29, 2025
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Red Eagle Politics
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Governor
Spanberger +12GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 53% · Winsome Earle-Sears 41%
- Field dates
- Aug 31–Sep 1, 2025
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- The Virginia Project
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
9 shown · 9 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-29 | — | D+10.0 | D+15.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2025 | NJ · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-29 | — | D+7.0 | D+14.4 | R+7.4 |
| 2025 | VA · Attorney general | AG-G | 2025-10-29 | — | R+2.0 | D+6.7 | R+8.7 |
| 2024 | IA · President | Pres-G | 2024-11-03 | — | R+7.0 | R+13.2 | D+6.2 |
| 2024 | PA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2024 | WI · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-29 | — | 0 | R+0.9 | D+0.9 |
| 2024 | GA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-27 | — | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | D+1.2 |
| 2024 | NC · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-21 | — | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | D+0.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.