Call
the Map
FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

Quinnipiac University

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
172
Mean absolute error
4.48percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.60
Represented cycles
201998–2025
Current archive
34canonical records
History span
Oct 16, 1998through Oct 28, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Quinnipiac
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2001 · 2002 · 2004 · 2005 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

172 eligible historical polls across 20 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

10 shown · 34 total

Shapiro +16

Josh Shapiro 55% · Stacy Garrity 39%

Field dates
Sep 25–Sep 29, 2025
Sample
1,579 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +16

Approve 38% · Disapprove 54%

Field dates
Sep 18–Sep 21, 2025
Sample
1,276 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +9

Mikie Sherrill 51% · Jack Ciattarelli 42%

Field dates
Sep 11–Sep 15, 2025
Sample
1,238 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +18

Approve 37% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates
Aug 21–Aug 25, 2025
Sample
1,220 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +14

Approve 40% · Disapprove 54%

Field dates
Jul 10–Jul 14, 2025
Sample
1,290 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +13

Approve 41% · Disapprove 54%

Field dates
Jun 22–Jun 24, 2025
Sample
979 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +16

Approve 38% · Disapprove 54%

Field dates
Jun 5–Jun 9, 2025
Sample
1,265 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +12

Approve 41% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
Apr 3–Apr 7, 2025
Sample
1,407 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +11

Approve 42% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
Mar 6–Mar 10, 2025
Sample
1,198 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +3

Approve 46% · Disapprove 43%

Field dates
Jan 23–Jan 27, 2025
Sample
1,019 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 172 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20102010_Sen-GS_NYSen-G2010-10-21672D+23.0D+27.8R+4.8
20102010_Gov-G_OHGov-G2010-10-21686R+6.0R+2.0R+4.0
20102010_Gov-G_NYGov-G2010-10-21672D+20.0D+29.3R+9.3
20102010_Gov-G_FLGov-G2010-10-21784D+4.0R+1.1D+5.2
20102010_Gov-G_CTGov-G2010-10-21702D+5.0D+0.6D+4.4
20102010_Sen-G_PASen-G2010-10-151,046R+2.0R+2.0D+0.0
20102010_Sen-G_OHSen-G2010-10-151,188R+21.0R+17.4R+3.6
20102010_Gov-G_PAGov-G2010-10-151,046R+5.0R+9.0D+4.0
20102010_Gov-G_OHGov-G2010-10-151,188R+10.0R+2.0R+8.0
20092009_Gov-G_NJGov-G2009-10-301,533R+2.0R+3.6D+1.6
20092009_Gov-G_NJGov-G2009-10-231,267D+5.0R+3.6D+8.6
20082008_Pres-G_PAPres-G2008-10-301,493D+10.0D+10.3R+0.3
20082008_Pres-G_OHPres-G2008-10-301,574D+7.0D+4.6D+2.4
20082008_Pres-G_FLPres-G2008-10-301,773D+2.0D+2.8R+0.8
20082008_Pres-G_PAPres-G2008-10-241,364D+12.0D+10.3D+1.7
20082008_Pres-G_OHPres-G2008-10-241,425D+9.0D+4.6D+4.4
20082008_Pres-G_FLPres-G2008-10-241,435D+2.0D+2.8R+0.8
20082008_Pres-G_PAPres-G2008-10-191,425D+13.0D+10.3D+2.7
20082008_Pres-G_OHPres-G2008-10-191,360D+14.0D+4.6D+9.4
20082008_Sen-G_NJSen-G2008-10-181,184D+22.0D+14.1D+7.9
20082008_Pres-G_NJPres-G2008-10-181,184D+23.0D+15.6D+7.4
20082008_Pres-G_FLPres-G2008-10-181,433D+5.0D+2.8D+2.2
20062006_Sen-G_NJSen-G2006-11-02917D+5.0D+16.0R+11.0
20062006_Gov-G_CTGov-G2006-10-27926R+24.0R+27.8D+3.8
20062006_Sen-G_PASen-G2006-10-26933D+10.0D+17.4R+7.4
20062006_Sen-G_NJSen-G2006-10-26887D+5.0D+16.0R+11.0
20062006_Gov-G_PAGov-G2006-10-26933D+23.0D+20.7D+2.3
20062006_Sen-G_FLSen-G2006-10-20816D+35.0D+22.2D+12.8
20062006_Gov-G_FLGov-G2006-10-20816R+2.0R+7.1D+5.1
20062006_Gov-G_CTGov-G2006-10-18881R+26.0R+27.8D+1.8
20052005_Gov-G_NJGov-G2005-11-03775D+8.0D+10.4R+2.5
20052005_Gov-G_NJGov-G2005-10-27636D+12.0D+10.4D+1.6
20042004_Sen-G_PASen-G2004-10-291,022R+20.0R+10.6R+9.4
20042004_Sen-G_FLSen-G2004-10-291,098R+5.0R+1.1R+3.9
20042004_Pres-G_PAPres-G2004-10-291,0220D+2.5R+2.5
20042004_Pres-G_NJPres-G2004-10-29984D+5.0D+6.7R+1.7
20042004_Pres-G_FLPres-G2004-10-291,098R+8.0R+5.0R+3.0
20042004_Sen-G_PASen-G2004-10-24909R+24.0R+10.6R+13.4
20042004_Sen-G_FLSen-G2004-10-24944R+3.0R+1.1R+1.9
20042004_Pres-G_PAPres-G2004-10-24909R+2.0D+2.5R+4.5
20042004_Pres-G_FLPres-G2004-10-24944R+3.0R+5.0D+2.0
20042004_Pres-G_NJPres-G2004-10-238520D+6.7R+6.7
20042004_Sen-G_PASen-G2004-10-18841R+16.5R+10.6R+5.9
20042004_Pres-G_PAPres-G2004-10-18841D+5.5D+2.5D+3.0
20042004_Sen-G_FLSen-G2004-10-178080R+1.1D+1.1
20042004_Pres-G_FLPres-G2004-10-17808R+1.5R+5.0D+3.5
20042004_Pres-G_NJPres-G2004-10-16786D+4.5D+6.7R+2.2
20022002_Sen-G_NJSen-G2002-10-31574D+11.0D+9.9D+1.1
20022002_Gov-G_NYGov-G2002-10-31624R+16.0R+15.9R+0.1
20022002_Gov-G_PAGov-G2002-10-24636D+19.0D+9.0D+10.0

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.