Don't know 2% · Neither/would not vote 1% · Steve Hilton 36% · Xavier Becerra 61%
- Field dates
- Jun 29–Jul 6, 2026
- Sample
- 1,003 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Public Policy Institute of California
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 12
- Mean absolute error
- 4.32percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.93
- Represented cycles
- 102004–2022
- Current archive
- 1canonical records
- History span
- Oct 14, 2004through Oct 19, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022
12 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
1 shown · 1 total
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
12 shown · 12 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2022-10-19 | 1,111 | D+19.0 | D+18.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_CA | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 1,185 | D+26.0 | D+29.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2018-10-17 | 989 | D+11.0 | D+23.9 | R+12.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_CA | Pres-G | 2016-10-19 | 1,024 | D+26.0 | D+30.1 | R+4.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2014-10-16 | 976 | D+16.0 | D+19.9 | R+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CA | Pres-G | 2012-10-18 | 993 | D+12.0 | D+23.1 | R+11.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2010-10-14 | 1,067 | D+5.0 | D+10.0 | R+5.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2010-10-14 | 1,067 | D+8.0 | D+12.9 | R+4.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_CA | Pres-G | 2008-10-16 | 1,186 | D+23.0 | D+24.1 | R+1.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2006-10-19 | 1,076 | R+18.0 | R+17.0 | R+1.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2004-10-14 | 1,170 | D+18.0 | D+19.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_CA | Pres-G | 2004-10-14 | 1,170 | D+12.0 | D+9.9 | D+2.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.