House
Mendoza +2AZ-06 · House
JoAnna Mendoza 47% · Juan Ciscomani 45%
- Field dates
- Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
Normington, Petts & Associates
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 12
- Mean absolute error
- 7.55percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.63
- Represented cycles
- 72002–2020
- Current archive
- 18canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2002through Oct 13, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Normington Petts · Normington Petts & Associates (D) · Normington, Petts & Associates (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2014 · 2020
12 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
6 shown · 18 total
House
Stetson +6PA-10 · House
Janelle Stetson 51% · Scott Perry 45%
- Field dates
- Apr 20–Apr 23, 2026
- Sample
- 400 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Generic ballot
Dem +2Generic ballot
Dem 51% · Rep 49%
- Field dates
- Sep 11–Sep 16, 2025
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Third Way
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Disapprove +9Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 45% · Disapprove 54%
- Field dates
- Sep 11–Sep 16, 2025
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Third Way
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Stevens +2Michigan · Senate
Haley Stevens 47% · Mike Rogers 45%
- Field dates
- Jun 12–Jun 16, 2025
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Yes Michigan
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Rogers +4Michigan · Senate
Mike Rogers 48% · Mallory McMorrow 44%
- Field dates
- Jun 12–Jun 16, 2025
- Sample
- 700 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Yes Michigan
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
12 shown · 12 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_MN-2 | House-G | 2020-10-13 | 400 | D+18.0 | D+2.3 | D+15.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_ME-2 | House-G | 2014-10-16 | 400 | D+8.0 | R+5.2 | D+13.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_CA-20 | House-G | 2010-10-23 | 400 | D+6.0 | D+3.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2010-10-18 | 600 | D+2.0 | R+11.5 | D+13.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_IL-11 | House-G | 2008-10-16 | 400 | D+21.0 | D+23.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_IL-10 | House-G | 2008-10-16 | 400 | R+6.0 | R+5.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_VA-2 | House-G | 2008-10-15 | 400 | R+5.0 | D+5.0 | R+9.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2006-10-24 | 800 | D+9.0 | D+16.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IL-6 | House-G | 2006-10-24 | 400 | D+1.0 | R+2.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_AZ-5 | House-G | 2006-10-19 | 400 | R+1.0 | D+4.0 | R+5.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_TX-17 | House-G | 2004-10-12 | 450 | D+10.0 | D+3.8 | D+6.2 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2002-10-17 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+12.0 | D+10.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.