Primary · R primary
James +21Michigan · Governor
John James 38% · Aric Nesbitt 17%
- Field dates
- Feb 19, 2025
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Pollster file
National Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 12
- Mean absolute error
- 3.67percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.61
- Represented cycles
- 52008–2020
- Current archive
- 1canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2008through Jan 3, 2021
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- National Research (R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2020
12 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
1 shown · 1 total
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
12 shown · 12 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GSR_GA | Sen-G | 2021-01-03 | 500 | D+1.0 | D+2.1 | R+1.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2021-01-03 | 500 | D+1.0 | D+1.2 | R+0.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-OS_GA | Sen-G | 2020-10-14 | 800 | D+12.0 | D+7.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2020-10-14 | 800 | 0 | R+1.8 | D+1.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 800 | D+4.0 | D+0.2 | D+3.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2014-10-30 | 600 | D+1.0 | R+1.6 | D+2.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2014-10-17 | 600 | R+1.0 | R+1.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_CT-5 | House-G | 2012-10-23 | 400 | R+6.0 | D+2.6 | R+8.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2012-10-21 | 600 | R+1.0 | R+2.0 | D+1.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_MI-7 | House-G | 2010-10-21 | 300 | R+13.0 | R+4.8 | R+8.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_CT-4 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 300 | R+4.0 | D+6.1 | R+10.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_NJ-7 | House-G | 2008-10-21 | 300 | R+9.0 | R+8.0 | R+1.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.