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Pollster file

Mitchell Research & Communications

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
54
Mean absolute error
4.64percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.16
Represented cycles
121998–2024
Current archive
47canonical records
History span
Oct 21, 1998through Nov 2, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Mitchell Research
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

54 eligible historical polls across 12 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

11 shown · 47 total

Benson +3

Don't know 12% · Mike Duggan 16% · John James 34% · Jocelyn Benson 37%

Field dates
Mar 13, 2025
Sample
688 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Tied

Abdul El-Sayed 45% · Mike Rogers 45%

Field dates
Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026
Sample
672 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rogers +4

Haley Stevens 41% · Mike Rogers 45%

Field dates
Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026
Sample
672 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Benson +5

Jocelyn Benson 48% · Perry Johnson 43%

Field dates
Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026
Sample
672 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Benson +2

Jocelyn Benson 46% · John James 44%

Field dates
Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026
Sample
672 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
McMorrow +2

Mallory McMorrow 43% · Mike Rogers 41%

Field dates
May 1–May 7, 2026
Sample
606 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
El-Sayed +1

Abdul El-Sayed 42% · Mike Rogers 41%

Field dates
May 1–May 7, 2026
Sample
607 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Stevens +3

Haley Stevens 42% · Mike Rogers 39%

Field dates
May 1–May 7, 2026
Sample
606 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rogers +6

Mike Rogers 44% · Mallory McMorrow 38%

Field dates
Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
Sample
616 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rogers +2

Mike Rogers 42% · Haley Stevens 40%

Field dates
Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
Sample
616 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rogers +3

Mike Rogers 41% · Abdul El-Sayed 38%

Field dates
Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
Sample
616 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS News Service
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 54 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+1.5R+1.4D+2.9
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-29—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—R+2.0R+5.5D+3.5
20222022_Sen-GR_GASen-G2022-12-04625D+5.0D+2.8D+2.2
20222022_Gov-G_MIGov-G2022-11-03658D+2.0D+10.5R+8.5
20222022_House-G_MI-7House-G2022-11-02402R+0.9D+5.4R+6.3
20222022_Gov-G_MIGov-G2022-10-19541D+2.0D+10.5R+8.5
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-29817D+5.4D+1.7D+3.7
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-29817D+7.1D+2.8D+4.3
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-26759D+9.6D+1.7D+7.9
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-26759D+10.4D+2.8D+7.6
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-18900D+6.0D+1.7D+4.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-18900D+10.0D+2.8D+7.2
20182018_Sen-G_MISen-G2018-11-05827D+3.0D+6.5R+3.5
20182018_Gov-G_MIGov-G2018-11-05827D+7.8D+9.6R+1.8
20182018_Sen-G_MISen-G2018-11-04701D+7.0D+6.5D+0.5
20182018_Gov-G_MIGov-G2018-11-04701D+14.0D+9.6D+4.4
20182018_Sen-G_MISen-G2018-10-25400D+6.0D+6.5R+0.5
20182018_Gov-G_MIGov-G2018-10-25400D+5.0D+9.6R+4.6
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-11-061,011D+6.0R+0.2D+6.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-11-031,007D+5.0R+0.2D+5.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-11-021,150D+4.0R+0.2D+4.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-11-01887D+4.0R+0.2D+4.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-31737D+6.5R+0.2D+6.7
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-30953D+7.3R+0.2D+7.5
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-251,030D+6.0R+0.2D+6.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-231,241D+8.0R+0.2D+8.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-181,102D+12.5R+0.2D+12.7
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-11-021,224D+12.0D+13.3R+1.3
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-11-021,2240R+4.1D+4.1
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-10-271,159D+14.1D+13.3D+0.8
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-10-271,159R+4.9R+4.1R+0.8
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-10-19919D+13.6D+13.3D+0.3
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-10-19919R+2.3R+4.1D+1.8
20142014_House-G_MI-11House-G2014-10-15472R+12.0R+15.4D+3.4
20122012_Sen-G_MISen-G2012-11-041,305D+14.0D+20.8R+6.8
20122012_Pres-G_MIPres-G2012-11-041,305D+5.0D+9.5R+4.5
20082008_Pres-G_MIPres-G2008-11-03400D+16.0D+16.5R+0.5
20082008_Pres-G_MIPres-G2008-10-28600D+14.0D+16.5R+2.5
20042004_Pres-G_MIPres-G2004-10-27600D+2.0D+3.4R+1.4
20042004_Pres-G_MIPres-G2004-10-23600D+1.0D+3.4R+2.4
20042004_Pres-G_MIPres-G2004-10-19400R+4.0D+3.4R+7.4
20022002_Sen-G_MISen-G2002-10-29600D+30.0D+22.7D+7.3
20022002_Gov-G_MIGov-G2002-10-29600D+13.0D+4.0D+9.0
20022002_Sen-G_MISen-G2002-10-22600D+34.0D+22.7D+11.3
20022002_Gov-G_MIGov-G2002-10-22600D+8.0D+4.0D+4.0
20022002_Sen-G_MISen-G2002-10-15600D+26.0D+22.7D+3.3
20022002_Gov-G_MIGov-G2002-10-15600D+12.0D+4.0D+8.0
20002000_Sen-G_MISen-G2000-11-01800R+3.0D+1.6R+4.6
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-11-01800D+5.0D+5.1R+0.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.