Primary · R primary
James +43Michigan · Governor
John James 48% · Tom Leonard 5% · Aric Nesbitt 2%
- Field dates
- Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 255 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Mitchell Research & Communications
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 54
- Mean absolute error
- 4.64percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.16
- Represented cycles
- 121998–2024
- Current archive
- 47canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 1998through Nov 2, 2024
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Mitchell Research
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
54 eligible historical polls across 12 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 47 total
Don't know 14% · Mike Duggan 18% · Jocelyn Benson 31% · John James 37%
- Field dates
- Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 22% · Abdul El-Sayed 38% · Mike Rogers 41%
- Field dates
- Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 19% · Mike Duggan 22% · Aric Nesbitt 27% · Jocelyn Benson 32%
- Field dates
- Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 18% · Haley Stevens 40% · Mike Rogers 42%
- Field dates
- Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 16% · Mike Duggan 19% · Mike Cox 32% · Jocelyn Benson 33%
- Field dates
- Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary
Stevens +11Michigan · Senate
Abdul El-Sayed 16% · Haley Stevens 27%
- Field dates
- Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 261 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 19% · Mallory McMorrow 38% · Mike Rogers 44%
- Field dates
- Nov 18–Nov 21, 2025
- Sample
- 616 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary
James +23Michigan · Governor
John James 31% · Perry Johnson 8% · Tom Leonard 1% · Aric Nesbitt 5%
- Field dates
- Mar 13, 2025
- Sample
- 281 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · D primary
Benson +33Michigan · Governor
Jocelyn Benson 46% · Garlin Gilchrist 13% · Christopher Robert Swanson 11%
- Field dates
- Mar 13, 2025
- Sample
- 303 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 10% · Mike Duggan 16% · Tudor Dixon 36% · Jocelyn Benson 38%
- Field dates
- Mar 13, 2025
- Sample
- 688 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know 12% · Mike Duggan 16% · Mike Cox 35% · Jocelyn Benson 37%
- Field dates
- Mar 13, 2025
- Sample
- 688 LV
- Sponsor / client
- MIRS News Service
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
4 shown · 54 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2000-10-31 | 800 | R+2.0 | D+1.6 | R+3.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2000-10-24 | 800 | R+3.0 | D+1.6 | R+4.6 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2000-10-24 | 600 | 0 | D+5.1 | R+5.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 1998-10-21 | 600 | R+32.0 | R+24.4 | R+7.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.