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Pollster file

McLaughlin & Associates

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
28
Mean absolute error
7.29percentage points
Historical bias
R+2.53
Represented cycles
112000–2022
Current archive
37canonical records
History span
Oct 17, 2000through Oct 24, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
AIF Center · McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2013 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022

28 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 37 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 45% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Nov 17–Nov 24, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2

Dem 44% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Oct 21–Oct 27, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +6

Dem 41% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Sep 17–Sep 22, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Donalds +8

David Jolly 41% · Byron Donalds 49%

Field dates
Aug 25–Aug 27, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Associated Industries of Florida
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2

Dem 45% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Aug 21–Aug 26, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +5

Dem 42% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Jul 9–Jul 14, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +5

Dem 42% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Jun 10–Jun 15, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +4

Dem 43% · Rep 47%

Field dates
May 21–May 26, 2025
Sample
1,000 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +0.8

Approve 50.4% · Disapprove 49.6%

Field dates
Mar 4–Mar 7, 2025
Sample
2,000 RV
Sponsor / client
America's New Majority Project
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +7

Dem 41% · Rep 48%

Field dates
Feb 11–Feb 18, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +5

Approve 51% · Disapprove 46%

Field dates
Feb 11–Feb 18, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +8

Dem 40% · Rep 48%

Field dates
Jan 22–Jan 27, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

28 shown · 28 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20222022_Gov-G_CTGov-G2022-10-24500D+5.0D+12.8R+7.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-201,000D+2.0D+8.8R+6.8
20162016_Pres-G_NYPres-G2016-10-28600D+11.0D+22.6R+11.6
20162016_Sen-G_WISen-G2016-10-19600D+2.0R+3.4D+5.4
20162016_Pres-G_WIPres-G2016-10-19600D+5.0R+0.8D+5.8
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-181,100D+3.0D+10.2R+7.2
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-11400D+6.0D+10.2R+4.2
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-05400D+1.0D+10.2R+9.2
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-11-01600R+2.0D+5.8R+7.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-11-01600R+13.0R+10.2R+2.8
20122012_Gov-G_INGov-G2012-11-01600R+12.0R+2.9R+9.1
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-30600R+1.0D+5.8R+6.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-10-30600R+18.0R+10.2R+7.8
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-256000D+5.8R+5.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-10-25600R+14.0R+10.2R+3.8
20122012_House-G_NY-6House-G2012-10-18300D+3.0D+36.9R+33.9
20112011_House-GS_NY-9House-G2011-08-313000R+5.2D+5.2
20102010_Gov-G_CAGov-G2010-10-20900D+3.0D+12.9R+9.9
20082008_House-G_LA-6House-G2008-10-23300D+2.0R+7.8D+9.8
20082008_House-G_LA-6House-G2008-10-16300D+11.0R+7.8D+18.8
20082008_House-GS_IL-14House-G2008-03-01550R+2.0D+5.1R+7.1
20042004_Sen-G_AKSen-G2004-10-30500R+5.0R+3.0R+2.0
20042004_Sen-G_SCSen-G2004-10-27400R+8.0R+9.6D+1.6
20042004_Sen-G_SDSen-G2004-10-23400R+4.0R+1.1R+2.9
20042004_Pres-G_SDPres-G2004-10-23400R+22.0R+21.5R+0.5
20022002_Gov-G_FLGov-G2002-10-17600R+8.0R+12.8D+4.8
20002000_Sen-G_FLSen-G2000-10-176000D+4.8R+4.8
20002000_Pres-G_FLPres-G2000-10-17600R+1.0R+0.0R+1.0

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.