Call
the Map
FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

McLaughlin & Associates

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
28
Mean absolute error
7.29percentage points
Historical bias
R+2.53
Represented cycles
112000–2022
Current archive
37canonical records
History span
Oct 17, 2000through Oct 24, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
AIF Center · McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2013 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022

28 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 37 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +5

Dem 42% · Rep 47%

Field dates
Dec 11–Dec 16, 2024
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +4

Approve 46% · Disapprove 50%

Field dates
Jun 17–Jun 23, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moody +7

Ashley Moody 47% · Alexander Vindman 40%

Field dates
Jun 3–Jun 7, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Associated Industries of Florida
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Disapprove +9

Approve 44% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
May 12–May 18, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 46% · Rep 42%

Field dates
May 12–May 18, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 47% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Apr 8–Apr 15, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 47% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Mar 4–Mar 9, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 46% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Jan 21–Jan 27, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 46% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Dec 12–Dec 19, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +3

Approve 50% · Disapprove 47%

Field dates
Dec 12–Dec 19, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate · R primary

Texas · Senate

Paxton +4

John Cornyn 40% · Ken Paxton 44%

Field dates
Dec 1–Dec 4, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Standing For Texas
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Senate · R primary

Texas · Senate

Paxton +5

Ken Paxton 33% · John Cornyn 27% · Wesley Hunt 28%

Field dates
Dec 1–Dec 4, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Standing For Texas
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

28 shown · 28 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20222022_Gov-G_CTGov-G2022-10-24500D+5.0D+12.8R+7.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-201,000D+2.0D+8.8R+6.8
20162016_Pres-G_NYPres-G2016-10-28600D+11.0D+22.6R+11.6
20162016_Sen-G_WISen-G2016-10-19600D+2.0R+3.4D+5.4
20162016_Pres-G_WIPres-G2016-10-19600D+5.0R+0.8D+5.8
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-181,100D+3.0D+10.2R+7.2
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-11400D+6.0D+10.2R+4.2
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-05400D+1.0D+10.2R+9.2
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-11-01600R+2.0D+5.8R+7.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-11-01600R+13.0R+10.2R+2.8
20122012_Gov-G_INGov-G2012-11-01600R+12.0R+2.9R+9.1
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-30600R+1.0D+5.8R+6.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-10-30600R+18.0R+10.2R+7.8
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-256000D+5.8R+5.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-10-25600R+14.0R+10.2R+3.8
20122012_House-G_NY-6House-G2012-10-18300D+3.0D+36.9R+33.9
20112011_House-GS_NY-9House-G2011-08-313000R+5.2D+5.2
20102010_Gov-G_CAGov-G2010-10-20900D+3.0D+12.9R+9.9
20082008_House-G_LA-6House-G2008-10-23300D+2.0R+7.8D+9.8
20082008_House-G_LA-6House-G2008-10-16300D+11.0R+7.8D+18.8
20082008_House-GS_IL-14House-G2008-03-01550R+2.0D+5.1R+7.1
20042004_Sen-G_AKSen-G2004-10-30500R+5.0R+3.0R+2.0
20042004_Sen-G_SCSen-G2004-10-27400R+8.0R+9.6D+1.6
20042004_Sen-G_SDSen-G2004-10-23400R+4.0R+1.1R+2.9
20042004_Pres-G_SDPres-G2004-10-23400R+22.0R+21.5R+0.5
20022002_Gov-G_FLGov-G2002-10-17600R+8.0R+12.8D+4.8
20002000_Sen-G_FLSen-G2000-10-176000D+4.8R+4.8
20002000_Pres-G_FLPres-G2000-10-17600R+1.0R+0.0R+1.0

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.