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Pollster file

McLaughlin & Associates

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
28
Mean absolute error
7.29percentage points
Historical bias
R+2.53
Represented cycles
112000–2022
Current archive
40canonical records
History span
Oct 17, 2000through Oct 24, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
AIF Center · McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2013 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022

28 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 40 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 48% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Sep 16–Sep 22, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Evans +1.7

Don't know 5.7% · Manny Rutinel 46.3% · Gabe Evans 48%

Field dates
Sep 16–Sep 17, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Enhancing American Competitiveness
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Republican +0.4

Don't know 6.4% · Generic Republican 47% · Generic Democrat 46.6%

Field dates
Sep 16–Sep 17, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Enhancing American Competitiveness
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Hochul +3.9

Don't know 4.7% · Bruce Blakeman 45.7% · Kathy Hochul 49.6%

Field dates
Aug 27–Aug 31, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Haaland +1

Don't know 9% · Gregg Hull 45% · Deb Haaland 46%

Field dates
Jul 13–Jul 15, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Disapprove +4

Approve 46% · Disapprove 50%

Field dates
Jun 17–Jun 23, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Moody +7

Ashley Moody 47% · Alexander Vindman 40%

Field dates
Jun 3–Jun 7, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Associated Industries of Florida
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Disapprove +9

Approve 44% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
May 12–May 18, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 46% · Rep 42%

Field dates
May 12–May 18, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 47% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Apr 8–Apr 15, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 47% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Mar 4–Mar 9, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

28 shown · 28 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2022CT · GovernorGov-G2022-10-24500D+5.0D+12.8R+7.8
2018national · HouseHouse-G2018-10-201,000D+2.0D+8.8R+6.8
2016NY · PresidentPres-G2016-10-28600D+11.0D+22.6R+11.6
2016WI · SenateSen-G2016-10-19600D+2.0R+3.4D+5.4
2016WI · PresidentPres-G2016-10-19600D+5.0R+0.8D+5.8
2013MA · SenateSen-G2013-06-181,100D+3.0D+10.2R+7.2
2013MA · SenateSen-G2013-06-11400D+6.0D+10.2R+4.2
2013MA · SenateSen-G2013-06-05400D+1.0D+10.2R+9.2
2012IN · SenateSen-G2012-11-01600R+2.0D+5.8R+7.8
2012IN · PresidentPres-G2012-11-01600R+13.0R+10.2R+2.8
2012IN · GovernorGov-G2012-11-01600R+12.0R+2.9R+9.1
2012IN · SenateSen-G2012-10-30600R+1.0D+5.8R+6.8
2012IN · PresidentPres-G2012-10-30600R+18.0R+10.2R+7.8
2012IN · SenateSen-G2012-10-256000D+5.8R+5.8
2012IN · PresidentPres-G2012-10-25600R+14.0R+10.2R+3.8
2012NY-6 · HouseHouse-G2012-10-18300D+3.0D+36.9R+33.9
2011NY-9 · HouseHouse-G2011-08-313000R+5.2D+5.2
2010CA · GovernorGov-G2010-10-20900D+3.0D+12.9R+9.9
2008LA-6 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-23300D+2.0R+7.8D+9.8
2008LA-6 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-16300D+11.0R+7.8D+18.8
2008IL-14 · HouseHouse-G2008-03-01550R+2.0D+5.1R+7.1
2004AK · SenateSen-G2004-10-30500R+5.0R+3.0R+2.0
2004SC · SenateSen-G2004-10-27400R+8.0R+9.6D+1.6
2004SD · SenateSen-G2004-10-23400R+4.0R+1.1R+2.9
2004SD · PresidentPres-G2004-10-23400R+22.0R+21.5R+0.5
2002FL · GovernorGov-G2002-10-17600R+8.0R+12.8D+4.8
2000FL · SenateSen-G2000-10-176000D+4.8R+4.8
2000FL · PresidentPres-G2000-10-17600R+1.0R+0.0R+1.0

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.