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Pollster file

McLaughlin & Associates

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
28
Mean absolute error
7.29percentage points
Historical bias
R+2.53
Represented cycles
112000–2022
Current archive
37canonical records
History span
Oct 17, 2000through Oct 24, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
AIF Center · McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2008 · 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2013 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022

28 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 37 total

Hochul +3.9

Don't know 4.7% · Bruce Blakeman 45.7% · Kathy Hochul 49.6%

Field dates
Aug 27–Aug 31, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 48% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Aug 18–Aug 24, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +2

Dem 46% · Rep 44%

Field dates
Jul 15–Jul 21, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Haaland +1

Don't know 9% · Gregg Hull 45% · Deb Haaland 46%

Field dates
Jul 13–Jul 15, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Primary · R primary

Tennessee · Governor

Blackburn +15

Marsha Blackburn 44% · John Rose 29% · Monty Fritts 13%

Field dates
Jun 30, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 46% · Rep 43%

Field dates
Jun 17–Jun 23, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Primary · R primary

Florida · Governor

Donalds +46

Jay Collins 5% · Byron Donalds 54% · James Fishback 8% · Paul Renner 2%

Field dates
Jun 7, 2026
Sample
386 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Race

HOU-OH-09

Merrin +4

Don't know 7% · David Gedert 3% · Marcy Kaptur 43% · Derek Merrin 47%

Field dates
Apr 18–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
NRCC
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Donalds +8

Don't know 11% · Byron Donalds 49% · David Jolly 41%

Field dates
Aug 25–Aug 27, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Associated Industries of Florida
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +4

Dem 43% · Rep 47%

Field dates
May 21–May 26, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2

Dem 43% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Apr 22–Apr 29, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

28 shown · 28 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20222022_Gov-G_CTGov-G2022-10-24500D+5.0D+12.8R+7.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-201,000D+2.0D+8.8R+6.8
20162016_Pres-G_NYPres-G2016-10-28600D+11.0D+22.6R+11.6
20162016_Sen-G_WISen-G2016-10-19600D+2.0R+3.4D+5.4
20162016_Pres-G_WIPres-G2016-10-19600D+5.0R+0.8D+5.8
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-181,100D+3.0D+10.2R+7.2
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-11400D+6.0D+10.2R+4.2
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-05400D+1.0D+10.2R+9.2
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-11-01600R+2.0D+5.8R+7.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-11-01600R+13.0R+10.2R+2.8
20122012_Gov-G_INGov-G2012-11-01600R+12.0R+2.9R+9.1
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-30600R+1.0D+5.8R+6.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-10-30600R+18.0R+10.2R+7.8
20122012_Sen-G_INSen-G2012-10-256000D+5.8R+5.8
20122012_Pres-G_INPres-G2012-10-25600R+14.0R+10.2R+3.8
20122012_House-G_NY-6House-G2012-10-18300D+3.0D+36.9R+33.9
20112011_House-GS_NY-9House-G2011-08-313000R+5.2D+5.2
20102010_Gov-G_CAGov-G2010-10-20900D+3.0D+12.9R+9.9
20082008_House-G_LA-6House-G2008-10-23300D+2.0R+7.8D+9.8
20082008_House-G_LA-6House-G2008-10-16300D+11.0R+7.8D+18.8
20082008_House-GS_IL-14House-G2008-03-01550R+2.0D+5.1R+7.1
20042004_Sen-G_AKSen-G2004-10-30500R+5.0R+3.0R+2.0
20042004_Sen-G_SCSen-G2004-10-27400R+8.0R+9.6D+1.6
20042004_Sen-G_SDSen-G2004-10-23400R+4.0R+1.1R+2.9
20042004_Pres-G_SDPres-G2004-10-23400R+22.0R+21.5R+0.5
20022002_Gov-G_FLGov-G2002-10-17600R+8.0R+12.8D+4.8
20002000_Sen-G_FLSen-G2000-10-176000D+4.8R+4.8
20002000_Pres-G_FLPres-G2000-10-17600R+1.0R+0.0R+1.0

1 further row is held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.