Primary · D primary
Jolly +4Florida · Governor
Jerry Demings 19% · David Jolly 23%
- Field dates
- Jan 13, 2026
- Sample
- 400 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 389
- Mean absolute error
- 4.53percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.56
- Represented cycles
- 191998–2020
- Current archive
- 2canonical records
- History span
- Oct 14, 1998through Oct 20, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 1999 · 2000 · 2001 · 2002 · 2003 · 2004 · 2005 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2015 · 2016 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020
389 eligible historical polls across 19 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
2 shown · 2 total
Primary · R primary
Donalds +30Florida · Governor
Jay Collins 7% · Byron Donalds 37% · James Fishback 3% · Paul Renner 4%
- Field dates
- Jan 13, 2026
- Sample
- 400 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 389 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MT | Pres-G | 2008-10-24 | 625 | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | R+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2008-10-24 | 400 | R+35.0 | R+37.3 | D+2.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2008-10-24 | 400 | D+27.0 | D+28.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2008-10-24 | 400 | R+25.0 | R+34.4 | D+9.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2008-10-24 | 400 | R+56.0 | R+57.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2008-10-23 | 800 | R+4.0 | D+8.5 | R+12.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2008-10-23 | 625 | R+6.0 | R+2.9 | R+3.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MO | Pres-G | 2008-10-23 | 625 | R+1.0 | R+0.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2008-10-23 | 625 | D+11.0 | D+9.6 | D+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2008-10-23 | 625 | R+6.0 | R+5.2 | R+0.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2008-10-23 | 800 | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2008-10-21 | 625 | D+25.0 | D+31.3 | R+6.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 625 | D+2.0 | D+6.3 | R+4.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 625 | R+1.0 | D+2.8 | R+3.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WV | Pres-G | 2008-10-17 | 625 | R+6.0 | R+13.1 | D+7.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2008-10-17 | 625 | D+12.0 | D+13.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2008-10-17 | 625 | R+1.0 | D+4.6 | R+5.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_WY | Sen-G | 2008-10-14 | 625 | R+52.0 | R+51.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_SD | Sen-G | 2008-10-14 | 800 | D+23.0 | D+25.0 | R+2.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-GS_WY | Sen-G | 2008-10-14 | 625 | R+47.0 | R+46.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WY | Pres-G | 2008-10-14 | 625 | R+26.0 | R+32.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_SD | Pres-G | 2008-10-14 | 800 | R+7.0 | R+8.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_WY-1 | House-G | 2008-10-14 | 625 | D+1.0 | R+9.8 | D+10.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+1.0 | D+0.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | R+12.0 | R+2.7 | R+9.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+7.0 | D+16.0 | R+9.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+1.0 | D+2.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MD | Sen-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+3.0 | D+10.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+35.0 | D+38.9 | R+3.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_MD | Gov-G | 2006-11-02 | 625 | 0 | D+6.5 | R+6.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+16.0 | D+16.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_RI | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+1.0 | D+7.0 | R+8.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+13.0 | D+17.4 | R+4.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+6.0 | D+12.3 | R+6.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | 0 | D+0.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+24.0 | D+22.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+8.0 | R+9.8 | D+1.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_MT-1 | House-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+24.0 | R+19.8 | R+4.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_RI | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+8.0 | R+2.0 | R+6.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+18.0 | D+20.7 | R+2.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+19.0 | D+23.9 | R+4.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+7.0 | R+7.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+28.0 | D+27.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2006-10-31 | 625 | R+30.0 | R+31.3 | D+1.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_UT-3 | House-G | 2006-10-31 | 209 | R+23.0 | R+25.5 | D+2.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_UT-2 | House-G | 2006-10-31 | 209 | D+33.0 | D+21.7 | D+11.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_UT-1 | House-G | 2006-10-31 | 209 | R+32.0 | R+30.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2006-10-31 | 625 | D+4.0 | D+10.5 | R+6.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.