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Pollster file

Marquette University Law School

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
12
Mean absolute error
2.39percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.48
Represented cycles
72012–2024
Current archive
57canonical records
History span
May 25, 2012through Oct 24, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

12 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 57 total

Tied

David Crowley 44% · Tom Tiffany 44%

Field dates
Aug 12–Aug 20, 2026
Sample
891 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Crowley +5

David Crowley 49% · Tom Tiffany 44%

Field dates
Aug 12–Aug 20, 2026
Sample
738 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Tiffany +2

Kelda Roys 42% · Tom Tiffany 44%

Field dates
Jul 8–Jul 16, 2026
Sample
695 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Tied

Francesca Hong 44% · Tom Tiffany 44%

Field dates
Jul 8–Jul 16, 2026
Sample
695 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Barnes +5

Mandela Barnes 47% · Tom Tiffany 42%

Field dates
Jul 8–Jul 16, 2026
Sample
695 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 53% · Rep 45%

Field dates
Jun 9–Jun 15, 2026
Sample
827 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 49% · Rep 48%

Field dates
May 20–May 26, 2026
Sample
576 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +24

Approve 38% · Disapprove 62%

Field dates
May 20–May 26, 2026
Sample
1,001 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

12 shown · 12 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-24—D+2.5R+0.9D+3.4
20222022_Sen-G_WISen-G2022-10-28679R+2.0R+1.0R+1.0
20222022_Gov-G_WIGov-G2022-10-286790D+3.4R+3.4
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-23749D+5.0D+0.6D+4.4
20182018_Sen-G_WISen-G2018-10-261,154D+11.0D+10.8D+0.2
20182018_Gov-G_WIGov-G2018-10-261,1540D+1.1R+1.1
20162016_Sen-G_WISen-G2016-10-291,255D+1.0R+3.4D+4.4
20162016_Pres-G_WIPres-G2016-10-291,255D+6.0R+0.8D+6.8
20142014_Gov-G_WIGov-G2014-10-251,164R+7.0R+5.7R+1.3
20122012_Sen-G_WISen-G2012-10-271,243D+4.0D+5.5R+1.6
20122012_Pres-G_WIPres-G2012-10-271,243D+8.0D+6.8D+1.1
20122012_Gov-GS_WIGov-G2012-05-25600R+7.0R+6.8R+0.2

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.