Don't know 12% · Generic Democrat 50.1% · Generic Republican 37.8%
- Field dates
- Jul 30–Aug 12, 2025
- Sample
- 1,136 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Magellan Strategies
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 11
- Mean absolute error
- 4.40percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.84
- Represented cycles
- 62000–2018
- Current archive
- 1canonical records
- History span
- Oct 28, 2000through Oct 30, 2018
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2010 · 2011 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018
11 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
1 shown · 1 total
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2018-10-30 | 500 | D+5.0 | D+10.6 | R+5.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_OK | Gov-G | 2018-10-23 | 500 | R+7.0 | R+12.1 | D+5.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2016-11-02 | 500 | D+6.5 | D+4.9 | D+1.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2014-10-28 | 1,433 | D+7.0 | D+9.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_ME | Gov-G | 2014-10-24 | 869 | 0 | R+4.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2014-10-14 | 1,131 | D+7.0 | D+9.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2011 | 2011_House-GS_NY-9 | House-G | 2011-09-01 | 2,055 | R+4.2 | R+5.2 | D+1.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-O_LA | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,347 | R+17.0 | R+18.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_NY-22 | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 600 | 0 | D+5.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_IL-9 | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 945 | D+18.0 | D+35.2 | R+17.2 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_KY | Pres-G | 2000-10-28 | 681 | R+15.0 | R+15.1 | D+0.1 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.