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Pollster file

InsiderAdvantage

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
114
Mean absolute error
4.43percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.09
Represented cycles
142004–2025
Current archive
17canonical records
History span
Oct 12, 2004through Nov 3, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

114 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 17 total

Ossoff +7.5

Don't know 7.3% · Mike Collins 42.6% · Jon Ossoff 50.1%

Field dates
Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
James Magazine Online
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jackson +0.1

Don't know 7.5% · Rick Jackson 46.3% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.2%

Field dates
Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
James Magazine Online
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Jackson +0.1

Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.2% · Rick Jackson 46.3%

Field dates
Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
James Magazine
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ossoff +7.5

Jon Ossoff 50.1% · Mike Collins 42.6%

Field dates
Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
James Magazine
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +3.6

Approve 49.6% · Disapprove 46%

Field dates
Feb 17–Feb 18, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +1

Approve 50% · Disapprove 49%

Field dates
Jan 31–Feb 1, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +10

Abigail Spanberger 50% · Winsome Earle-Sears 40%

Field dates
Nov 2–Nov 3, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +1.1

Mikie Sherrill 45.4% · Jack Ciattarelli 44.3%

Field dates
Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 114 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-11-03—D+10.0D+15.4R+5.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-11-03—D+2.0D+6.7R+4.7
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-10-28—D+4.0D+15.4R+11.4
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-15—D+1.0D+14.4R+13.4
2024IA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—R+6.0R+13.2D+7.2
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—R+1.0R+2.2D+1.2
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+1.7D+0.7
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+2.0R+3.2D+1.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—0R+1.4D+1.4
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+3.0R+5.5D+2.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-27—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-27—R+1.0R+1.7D+0.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-27—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-21—0R+3.1D+3.1
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-21—R+3.0R+5.5D+2.5
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-15—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
20222022_Sen-GR_GASen-G2022-12-04750D+2.1D+2.8R+0.7
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-11-06550R+2.0D+1.0R+3.0
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-11-06550R+5.0R+7.5D+2.5
20222022_Sen-G_NHSen-G2022-11-05700D+1.8D+9.1R+7.3
20222022_Gov-G_NHGov-G2022-11-05700R+15.3R+15.6D+0.3
20222022_Sen-G_NVSen-G2022-11-04550R+6.0D+0.8R+6.8
20222022_Gov-G_NVGov-G2022-11-04550R+5.2R+1.5R+3.7
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-11-03750R+2.3D+4.9R+7.2
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-11-03750D+7.7D+14.8R+7.1
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-11-025500D+4.9R+4.9
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-11-02550R+3.0D+0.7R+3.7
20222022_Sen-G_FLSen-G2022-11-01550R+6.0R+16.4D+10.4
20222022_Gov-G_FLGov-G2022-11-01550R+10.0R+19.4D+9.4
20222022_Sen-G_WASen-G2022-10-31550D+1.6D+14.6R+12.9
20222022_Gov-G_MIGov-G2022-10-30550R+0.2D+10.5R+10.7
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-10-27550R+2.2D+1.0R+3.2
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-10-27550R+8.4R+7.5R+0.9
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-26750R+2.7D+4.9R+7.6
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-26750D+8.4D+14.8R+6.4
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-10-25550D+2.0D+4.9R+2.9
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-25750R+4.7R+2.7R+2.0
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-10-25550R+11.0D+0.7R+11.7
20222022_Sen-G_NHSen-G2022-10-23600D+0.5D+9.1R+8.6
20222022_Gov-G_NHGov-G2022-10-23600R+16.9R+15.6R+1.3
20222022_Sen-G_NVSen-G2022-10-20550R+1.9D+0.8R+2.7
20222022_Gov-G_NVGov-G2022-10-20550R+5.7R+1.5R+4.2
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-19550D+0.8D+4.9R+4.1
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-19550D+6.3D+14.8R+8.5
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-29500R+2.0R+1.9R+0.1
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2021-01-03500R+0.5D+2.1R+2.6
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2021-01-03500R+0.1D+1.2R+1.3
20202020_Sen-GSR_GASen-G2020-12-22500D+1.2D+2.1R+0.9
20202020_Sen-GR_GASen-G2020-12-22500R+1.9D+1.2R+3.1

2 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.