Jeff Van Drew 50% · Zach Mullock 40%
- Field dates
- Oct 7–Oct 10, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
Impact Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 21
- Mean absolute error
- 6.04percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.02
- Represented cycles
- 82004–2022
- Current archive
- 58canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2004through Oct 25, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Impact Research (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022
21 eligible historical polls across 8 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 58 total
Don't know/Someone else 10% · Darline Graham 44% · Annie Andrews 45%
- Field dates
- Oct 15–Oct 21, 2026
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Fresh Start SC PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 1% · Pete Ricketts 50% · Dan Osborn 48%
- Field dates
- Oct 14–Oct 20, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Zack Mullock 40% · Jeff Van Drew 50%
- Field dates
- Oct 7–Oct 10, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 6% · Douglas Mangeris 9% · Lauren Boebert 45% · Eileen Laubacher 40%
- Field dates
- Sep 21–Sep 24, 2026
- Sample
- 403 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Invest in Tomorrow Coalition
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Anthony Constantino 48% · Blake Gendebien 45%
- Field dates
- Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 16% · Steve Toth 46% · Shaun Finnie 37%
- Field dates
- Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026
- Sample
- 501 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 11% · Chaz Molder 41% · Charlie Hatcher 46%
- Field dates
- Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026
- Sample
- 552 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Bryan Steil 47% · Mitchell Berman 48%
- Field dates
- Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Generic Republican 48% · Generic Democrat 49%
- Field dates
- Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know 7% · Nick Sheedy 2% · Aaron Flint 44% · Sam Forstag 47%
- Field dates
- Sep 20–Sep 23, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Eric Pratt 40% · Matt Little 52%
- Field dates
- Sep 9–Sep 13, 2026
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
21 shown · 21 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | national · House | House-G | 2022-10-25 | 800 | R+2.0 | R+2.7 | D+0.7 |
| 2020 | AR-2 · House | House-G | 2020-10-19 | 500 | 0 | R+10.7 | D+10.7 |
| 2018 | FL-27 · House | House-G | 2018-10-27 | 500 | D+10.0 | D+6.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2018 | MI · Governor | Gov-G | 2018-10-18 | 906 | D+10.5 | D+9.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2012 | IN · Senate | Sen-G | 2012-10-25 | 446 | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2012 | IL-13 · House | House-G | 2012-10-20 | 400 | D+9.0 | R+0.3 | D+9.3 |
| 2012 | FL-22 · House | House-G | 2012-10-20 | 501 | D+10.0 | D+9.3 | D+0.8 |
| 2012 | AZ · Senate | Sen-G | 2012-10-19 | 800 | D+4.0 | R+3.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2012 | IL-8 · House | House-G | 2012-10-17 | 400 | D+15.0 | D+9.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2010 | IL · Senate | Sen-G | 2010-10-28 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | IL · Senate | Sen-G | 2010-10-22 | 600 | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | LA-2 · House | House-G | 2010-10-21 | 400 | D+17.0 | D+31.1 | R+14.1 |
| 2010 | LA · Senate | Sen-G | 2010-10-18 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+18.9 | D+15.9 |
| 2010 | IL · Senate | Sen-G | 2010-10-15 | 601 | D+5.0 | R+1.6 | D+6.6 |
| 2010 | AR-1 · House | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+8.3 | D+10.3 |
| 2010 | PA-12 · House | House-G | 2010-04-28 | 406 | D+2.0 | D+7.7 | R+5.7 |
| 2008 | N2 · President | Pres-G | 2008-10-14 | 400 | R+4.0 | D+1.2 | R+5.2 |
| 2008 | NE-2 · House | House-G | 2008-10-14 | 400 | R+1.0 | R+3.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2008 | MS-1 · House | House-G | 2008-04-05 | 500 | R+2.0 | D+3.2 | R+5.2 |
| 2006 | FL-22 · House | House-G | 2006-10-22 | 500 | D+6.0 | D+3.8 | D+2.2 |
| 2004 | UT-2 · House | House-G | 2004-10-21 | 400 | D+23.0 | D+11.5 | D+11.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.