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Pollster file

GQR

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
59
Mean absolute error
4.17percentage points
Historical bias
D+2.89
Represented cycles
132000–2025
Current archive
24canonical records
History span
Oct 19, 2000through Oct 20, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
GQR (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022 · 2025

59 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 24 total

Primary · D primary

MI-07 · House

Brink +7

Bridget Brink 30% · William Lawrence 23% · Matt Maasdam 17%

Field dates
Jun 27, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

MI-07 · House

Brink +17

Bridget Brink 39% · Matt Maasdam 22%

Field dates
Jun 27, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-FL-22

Republican +2

Don't know 12% · Generic Republican 45% · Generic Democrat 43%

Field dates
Jun 18–Jun 25, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-FL-22

Keiser +1

Don't know 10% · Belinda Keiser 46% · Pia Dandiya 45%

Field dates
Jun 18–Jun 25, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Marshall +4

Don't know 6% · Roger Marshall 49% · Patrick Schmidt 45%

Field dates
Apr 23–Apr 27, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

MI-07 · House

Brink +17

Bridget Brink 31% · William Lawrence 14% · Matt Maasdam 7%

Field dates
Mar 27, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-NC-01

Davis +3

Don't know 10% · Thomas Aaron Bailey 9% · Laurie Buckhout 39% · Don Davis 42%

Field dates
Jan 29–Feb 2, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Race

HOU-NC-01

Republican +4

Don't know 10% · Generic Republican 47% · Generic Democrat 43%

Field dates
Jan 29–Feb 2, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Primary · D primary

CT-01 · House

Larson +23

Luke Bronin 26% · Jillian Gilchrest 9% · John Larson 49%

Field dates
Feb 1, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Fitzpatrick +1

Bob Harvie 48% · Brian Fitzpatrick 49%

Field dates
Aug 19–Aug 23, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Honeycutt +2

Jenny Honeycutt 50% · Nancy Lacore 48%

Field dates
Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +12

Mikie Sherrill 52% · Jack Ciattarelli 40%

Field dates
Oct 15–Oct 20, 2025
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
One Giant Leap
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 59 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-20—D+12.0D+14.4R+2.4
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-11-071,000R+2.0R+2.7D+0.7
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-211,0000R+2.7D+2.7
20182018_Gov-G_NMGov-G2018-10-24600D+9.0D+14.4R+5.4
20182018_House-G_FL-15House-G2018-10-174000R+6.0D+6.0
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-23900D+12.0D+2.1D+9.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-23900R+1.0R+1.1D+0.1
20142014_Gov-G_MAGov-G2014-10-21611D+1.0R+1.9D+2.9
20142014_House-G_USHouse-G2014-10-196980R+5.9D+5.9
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-11-031,080D+4.0D+3.9D+0.1
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-11-031,0000D+1.1R+1.1
20122012_Pres-G_USPres-G2012-10-201,000D+3.0D+3.9R+0.8
20122012_House-G_USHouse-G2012-10-201,000D+3.0D+1.1D+1.9
20122012_Gov-GS_WIGov-G2012-05-20472R+3.0R+6.8D+3.8
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-24800R+7.0R+6.8R+0.2
20102010_Gov-G_NMGov-G2010-10-22603R+1.0R+6.7D+5.7
20102010_House-G_NC-11House-G2010-10-18401D+15.0D+8.7D+6.3
20102010_House-G_USHouse-G2010-10-17801R+5.0R+6.8D+1.8
20102010_Sen-G_ILSen-G2010-10-12600D+3.0R+1.6D+4.6
20092009_Gov-G_NJGov-G2009-10-31606D+5.5R+3.6D+9.1
20092009_Gov-G_NJGov-G2009-10-28604D+5.0R+3.6D+8.6
20092009_Gov-G_NJGov-G2009-10-22604D+3.0R+3.6D+6.6
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-11-011,000D+7.0D+7.3R+0.3
20082008_Pres-G_SDPres-G2008-10-28613R+5.0R+8.4D+3.4
20082008_Sen-G_SDSen-G2008-10-23603D+30.0D+25.0D+5.0
20082008_House-G_TX-7House-G2008-10-23400R+5.0R+13.5D+8.5
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-221,000D+9.0D+7.3D+1.7
20082008_House-G_AL-2House-G2008-10-21403D+7.0D+0.6D+6.4
20082008_House-G_OH-15House-G2008-10-20400D+8.0D+0.8D+7.2
20082008_Sen-G_GASen-G2008-10-18600R+4.0R+2.9R+1.1
20082008_Pres-G_GAPres-G2008-10-18600R+2.0R+5.2D+3.2
20082008_Pres-G_USPres-G2008-10-171,000D+5.0D+7.3R+2.3
20082008_Sen-G_SDSen-G2008-10-15618D+24.0D+25.0R+1.0
20082008_House-G_FL-24House-G2008-10-15400D+23.0D+16.1D+6.9
20082008_House-G_CA-50House-G2008-10-14400R+2.0R+5.1D+3.1
20062006_House-G_OH-13House-G2006-10-18506D+23.0D+22.4D+0.6
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-301,000D+1.0R+2.5D+3.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-30600D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-271,000D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-271,000D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
20042004_House-G_IL-8House-G2004-10-27500R+2.0D+3.4R+5.4
20042004_Sen-G_SDSen-G2004-10-26640D+2.0R+1.1D+3.1
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-251,000D+2.0R+2.5D+4.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-25600D+9.0R+2.7D+11.7
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-211,000D+2.0R+2.5D+4.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-21600D+5.0R+2.7D+7.7
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-181,000D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-181,001D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
20042004_Pres-G_USPres-G2004-10-151,000D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
20042004_House-G_USHouse-G2004-10-151,024D+4.0R+2.7D+6.7

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.