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Pollster file

GQR

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
59
Mean absolute error
4.17percentage points
Historical bias
D+2.89
Represented cycles
132000–2025
Current archive
28canonical records
History span
Oct 19, 2000through Oct 20, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
GQR (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2022 · 2025

59 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 28 total

Flanagan +8

Peggy Flanagan 50% · Michele Tafoya 42% · Marisa Simonetti 4% · Rebecca Whiting 2%

Field dates
Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Senate Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Flanagan +9

Peggy Flanagan 53% · Michele Tafoya 44%

Field dates
Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Senate Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Flanagan +9

Michele Tafoya 44% · Peggy Flanagan 53%

Field dates
Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
800 LV
Sponsor / client
Senate Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Dembo +5

Don't know 9% · Someone else 11% · Ralph Alvarado 37% · Zach Dembo 42%

Field dates
Sep 25–Sep 30, 2026
Sample
401 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Fitzpatrick +1

Bob Harvie 48% · Brian Fitzpatrick 49%

Field dates
Aug 19–Aug 23, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Honeycutt +2

Jenny Honeycutt 50% · Nancy Lacore 48%

Field dates
Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026
Sample
400 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Honeycutt +2

Nancy Lacore 48% · Jenny Costa Honeycutt 50%

Field dates
Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Honeycutt +2

Someone else 1% · Margo Ellis 2% · Bill Reeside 5% · Nancy Lacore 41% · Jenny Costa Honeycutt 43%

Field dates
Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Alme +14

Kurt Alme 41% · Alani Bankhead 22% · Seth Bodnar 27% · Kyle Austin 6%

Field dates
Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Contours Inc.
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Bodnar +4

Kyle Austin 11% · Seth Bodnar 44% · Kurt Alme 40%

Field dates
Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Contours Inc.
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 59 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-20—D+12.0D+14.4R+2.4
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-11-071,000R+2.0R+2.7D+0.7
2022national · HouseHouse-G2022-10-211,0000R+2.7D+2.7
2018NM · GovernorGov-G2018-10-24600D+9.0D+14.4R+5.4
2018FL-15 · HouseHouse-G2018-10-174000R+6.0D+6.0
2016national · PresidentPres-G2016-10-23900D+12.0D+2.1D+9.9
2016national · HouseHouse-G2016-10-23900R+1.0R+1.1D+0.1
2014MA · GovernorGov-G2014-10-21611D+1.0R+1.9D+2.9
2014national · HouseHouse-G2014-10-196980R+5.9D+5.9
2012national · PresidentPres-G2012-11-031,080D+4.0D+3.9D+0.1
2012national · HouseHouse-G2012-11-031,0000D+1.1R+1.1
2012national · PresidentPres-G2012-10-201,000D+3.0D+3.9R+0.8
2012national · HouseHouse-G2012-10-201,000D+3.0D+1.1D+1.9
2012WI · GovernorGov-G2012-05-20472R+3.0R+6.8D+3.8
2010national · HouseHouse-G2010-10-24800R+7.0R+6.8R+0.2
2010NM · GovernorGov-G2010-10-22603R+1.0R+6.7D+5.7
2010NC-11 · HouseHouse-G2010-10-18401D+15.0D+8.7D+6.3
2010national · HouseHouse-G2010-10-17801R+5.0R+6.8D+1.8
2010IL · SenateSen-G2010-10-12600D+3.0R+1.6D+4.6
2009NJ · GovernorGov-G2009-10-31606D+5.5R+3.6D+9.1
2009NJ · GovernorGov-G2009-10-28604D+5.0R+3.6D+8.6
2009NJ · GovernorGov-G2009-10-22604D+3.0R+3.6D+6.6
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-11-011,000D+7.0D+7.3R+0.3
2008SD · PresidentPres-G2008-10-28613R+5.0R+8.4D+3.4
2008SD · SenateSen-G2008-10-23603D+30.0D+25.0D+5.0
2008TX-7 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-23400R+5.0R+13.5D+8.5
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-10-221,000D+9.0D+7.3D+1.7
2008AL-2 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-21403D+7.0D+0.6D+6.4
2008OH-15 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-20400D+8.0D+0.8D+7.2
2008GA · SenateSen-G2008-10-18600R+4.0R+2.9R+1.1
2008GA · PresidentPres-G2008-10-18600R+2.0R+5.2D+3.2
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-10-171,000D+5.0D+7.3R+2.3
2008SD · SenateSen-G2008-10-15618D+24.0D+25.0R+1.0
2008FL-24 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-15400D+23.0D+16.1D+6.9
2008CA-50 · HouseHouse-G2008-10-14400R+2.0R+5.1D+3.1
2006OH-13 · HouseHouse-G2006-10-18506D+23.0D+22.4D+0.6
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-301,000D+1.0R+2.5D+3.5
2004national · HouseHouse-G2004-10-30600D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-271,000D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
2004national · HouseHouse-G2004-10-271,000D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
2004IL-8 · HouseHouse-G2004-10-27500R+2.0D+3.4R+5.4
2004SD · SenateSen-G2004-10-26640D+2.0R+1.1D+3.1
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-251,000D+2.0R+2.5D+4.5
2004national · HouseHouse-G2004-10-25600D+9.0R+2.7D+11.7
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-211,000D+2.0R+2.5D+4.5
2004national · HouseHouse-G2004-10-21600D+5.0R+2.7D+7.7
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-181,000D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
2004national · HouseHouse-G2004-10-181,001D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-151,000D+3.0R+2.5D+5.5
2004national · HouseHouse-G2004-10-151,024D+4.0R+2.7D+6.7

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.