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Pollster file

Franklin & Marshall College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
23
Mean absolute error
5.06percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.04
Represented cycles
112004–2024
Current archive
7canonical records
History span
Oct 21, 2004through Oct 20, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

23 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

7 shown · 7 total

Shapiro +21

Don't know 9% · Someone else 4% · Stacy Garrity 33% · Josh Shapiro 54%

Field dates
Oct 7–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
808 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Shapiro +23

Stacy Garrity 36% · Josh Shapiro 59%

Field dates
Oct 7–Oct 18, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Brooks +5

Don't know 16% · Ryan E. Mackenzie 40% · Bob Brooks 45%

Field dates
Sep 9–Sep 20, 2026
Sample
350 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Stelson +3

Don't know 9% · Scott Perry 44% · Janelle Stelson 47%

Field dates
Sep 9–Sep 20, 2026
Sample
378 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Shapiro +25

Don't know 18% · Someone else 5% · Tony Dastra 2% · Stacy Garrity 25% · Josh Shapiro 50%

Field dates
Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026
Sample
501 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Shapiro +22

Don't know 16% · Someone else 6% · Stacy Garrity 28% · Josh Shapiro 50%

Field dates
Jun 8–Jun 14, 2026
Sample
546 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Shapiro +20

Don't know 17% · Someone else 7% · Stacy Garrity 28% · Josh Shapiro 48%

Field dates
Feb 18–Mar 1, 2026
Sample
834 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

23 shown · 23 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+4.0R+1.7D+5.7
2022PA · SenateSen-G2022-10-19384D+4.0D+4.9R+0.9
2022PA · GovernorGov-G2022-10-19384D+22.0D+14.8D+7.2
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-10-22558D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
2020PA-7 · HouseHouse-G2020-10-15447D+7.2D+3.7D+3.5
2018PA · SenateSen-G2018-10-25214D+15.0D+13.1D+1.9
2018PA · GovernorGov-G2018-10-25214D+26.0D+17.1D+8.9
2016PA · SenateSen-G2016-10-28652D+12.0R+1.4D+13.4
2016PA · PresidentPres-G2016-10-28652D+11.0R+0.7D+11.7
2014PA · GovernorGov-G2014-10-23333.5D+10.0D+9.9D+0.1
2012PA · SenateSen-G2012-10-26547D+9.0D+9.1R+0.1
2012PA · PresidentPres-G2012-10-26547D+4.0D+5.4R+1.4
2010PA · SenateSen-G2010-10-21489R+8.0R+2.0R+6.0
2010PA · GovernorGov-G2010-10-21489R+16.0R+9.0R+7.0
2008PA · PresidentPres-G2008-10-24600D+13.0D+10.3D+2.7
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-10-16600D+5.0D+7.3R+2.3
2006PA · SenateSen-G2006-10-27626D+15.0D+17.4R+2.4
2006PA · GovernorGov-G2006-10-27626D+25.0D+20.7D+4.3
2006PA-8 · HouseHouse-G2006-10-22336R+9.0D+0.6R+9.6
2006PA-10 · HouseHouse-G2006-10-21326D+12.0D+5.9D+6.1
2004PA-13 · HouseHouse-G2004-10-26454D+18.0D+14.5D+3.5
2004PA · SenateSen-G2004-10-21376R+21.0R+10.6R+10.4
2004PA · PresidentPres-G2004-10-21376D+5.0D+2.5D+2.5

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.