Race
Turner +7HOU-OH-10
Mike Turner 48% · Kristina Knickerbocker 41%
- Field dates
- Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Pollster file
FM3 Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 11
- Mean absolute error
- 8.43percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+3.81
- Represented cycles
- 61998–2022
- Current archive
- 13canonical records
- History span
- Oct 13, 1998through Oct 25, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- FM3 Research (D)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2020 · 2022
11 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 13 total
Race
Democrat +1HOU-OH-10
Generic Republican 47% · Generic Democrat 48%
- Field dates
- Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Conley +6HOU-NY-17
Mike Lawler 45% · Cait Conley 51%
- Field dates
- Jun 27–Jul 1, 2026
- Sample
- 509 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Cooke +4HOU-WI-03
Rebecca Cooke 50% · Derrick Van Orden 46%
- Field dates
- Jun 20–Jun 25, 2026
- Sample
- 535 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Republican +4HOU-MO-02
Don't know 8% · Generic Republican 48% · Generic Democrat 44%
- Field dates
- May 26–May 31, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Race
Wagner +3HOU-MO-02
Don't know/Someone else 15% · Ann Wagner 44% · Fred Wellman 41%
- Field dates
- May 26–May 31, 2026
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Don't know/Someone else 21% · Ed Diehl 37% · Tina Kotek 43%
- Field dates
- Jan 28–Feb 4, 2026
- Sample
- 1,065 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Charlie Health
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know/Someone else 15% · Christine Drazan 40% · Tina Kotek 45%
- Field dates
- Jan 28–Feb 4, 2026
- Sample
- 1,065 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Charlie Health
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Don't know/Someone else 20% · Chris Dudley 35% · Tina Kotek 45%
- Field dates
- Jan 28–Feb 4, 2026
- Sample
- 1,065 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Charlie Health
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
House
Conley +6NY-17 · House
Cait Conley 51% · Mike Lawler 45%
- Field dates
- Jun 27–Jul 1, 2026
- Sample
- 509 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
House
Cooke +4WI-03 · House
Derrick Van Orden 46% · Rebecca Cooke 50%
- Field dates
- Jun 20–Jun 25, 2026
- Sample
- 535 LV
- Sponsor / client
- House Majority PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Senate · D primary
Stratton +5Illinois · Senate
Juliana Stratton 38% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 33% · Robin Kelly 18%
- Field dates
- Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026
- Sample
- 678 LV
- Sponsor / client
- American Future PAC
- Partisan sponsorship
- Democratic-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_OR | Gov-G | 2022-10-25 | 741 | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_AL | Sen-G | 2020-10-13 | 801 | D+1.0 | R+20.4 | D+21.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2004-10-21 | 400 | D+5.0 | D+4.8 | D+0.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2004-10-21 | 400 | 0 | R+4.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_CO-3 | House-G | 2004-10-21 | 259 | D+17.0 | D+4.0 | D+13.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2002-10-18 | 900 | D+1.0 | R+12.0 | D+13.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_TX | Gov-G | 2002-10-18 | 900 | R+3.0 | R+17.9 | D+14.8 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2002-10-15 | 600 | D+2.0 | R+12.0 | D+14.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_House-G_CA-20 | House-G | 2000-10-24 | 400 | D+11.0 | D+6.8 | D+4.2 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 1998-10-22 | 599 | D+1.0 | D+2.1 | R+1.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 1998-10-13 | 488 | D+5.0 | D+0.1 | D+4.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.