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Pollster file

FM3 Research

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
11
Mean absolute error
8.43percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.81
Represented cycles
61998–2022
Current archive
9canonical records
History span
Oct 13, 1998through Oct 25, 2022
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
FM3 Research (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2020 · 2022

11 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

9 shown · 9 total

Turner +7

Mike Turner 48% · Kristina Knickerbocker 41%

Field dates
Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Democrat +1

Generic Republican 47% · Generic Democrat 48%

Field dates
Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026
Sample
Not reported LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Senate · D primary

Illinois · Senate

Stratton +5

Juliana Stratton 38% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 33% · Robin Kelly 18%

Field dates
Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026
Sample
678 LV
Sponsor / client
American Future PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Kotek +5

Tina Kotek 45% · Christine Drazan 40%

Field dates
Jan 26–Feb 4, 2026
Sample
1,065 LV
Sponsor / client
Charlie Health
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Conley +6

Cait Conley 51% · Mike Lawler 45%

Field dates
Jun 27–Jul 1, 2026
Sample
509 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Cooke +4

Derrick Van Orden 46% · Rebecca Cooke 50%

Field dates
Jun 20–Jun 25, 2026
Sample
535 LV
Sponsor / client
House Majority PAC
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Kotek +6

Don't know/Someone else 21% · Ed Diehl 37% · Tina Kotek 43%

Field dates
Jan 28–Feb 4, 2026
Sample
1,065 LV
Sponsor / client
Charlie Health
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Kotek +5

Don't know/Someone else 15% · Christine Drazan 40% · Tina Kotek 45%

Field dates
Jan 28–Feb 4, 2026
Sample
1,065 LV
Sponsor / client
Charlie Health
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Kotek +10

Don't know/Someone else 20% · Chris Dudley 35% · Tina Kotek 45%

Field dates
Jan 28–Feb 4, 2026
Sample
1,065 LV
Sponsor / client
Charlie Health
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

11 shown · 11 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2022OR · GovernorGov-G2022-10-25741D+2.0D+3.4R+1.4
2020AL · SenateSen-G2020-10-13801D+1.0R+20.4D+21.4
2004CO · SenateSen-G2004-10-21400D+5.0D+4.8D+0.2
2004CO · PresidentPres-G2004-10-214000R+4.7D+4.7
2004CO-3 · HouseHouse-G2004-10-21259D+17.0D+4.0D+13.0
2002TX · SenateSen-G2002-10-18900D+1.0R+12.0D+13.0
2002TX · GovernorGov-G2002-10-18900R+3.0R+17.9D+14.8
2002TX · SenateSen-G2002-10-15600D+2.0R+12.0D+14.0
2000CA-20 · HouseHouse-G2000-10-24400D+11.0D+6.8D+4.2
1998WI · SenateSen-G1998-10-22599D+1.0D+2.1R+1.1
1998NV · SenateSen-G1998-10-13488D+5.0D+0.1D+4.9

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.