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Pollster file

EPIC-MRA

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
49
Mean absolute error
4.66percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.23
Represented cycles
132000–2024
Current archive
16canonical records
History span
Oct 18, 2000through Oct 28, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

49 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

4 shown · 16 total

Benson +9

Jocelyn Benson 47% · John James 38%

Field dates
Jul 24–Jul 31, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
1 source pointer
Source unavailable
Stevens +2

Haley Stevens 44% · Mike Rogers 42%

Field dates
Jul 24–Jul 31, 2026
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
MIRS
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
1 source pointer
Source unavailable
Stevens +2

Haley Stevens 44% · Mike Rogers 42%

Field dates
Nov 6–Nov 11, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
ABC 12
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
McMorrow +1

Mike Rogers 42% · Mallory McMorrow 43%

Field dates
Nov 6–Nov 11, 2025
Sample
600 LV
Sponsor / client
ABC 12
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

49 shown · 49 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—D+3.0R+1.4D+4.4
20222022_Gov-G_MIGov-G2022-10-30600D+11.0D+10.5D+0.5
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-27600D+5.0D+1.7D+3.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-27600D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-17600D+6.0D+1.7D+4.3
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-17600D+9.0D+2.8D+6.2
20182018_Sen-G_MISen-G2018-10-21600D+7.0D+6.5D+0.5
20182018_Gov-G_MIGov-G2018-10-21600D+5.0D+9.6R+4.6
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-11-02600D+4.0R+0.2D+4.2
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-23600D+7.5R+0.2D+7.7
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-10-27600D+15.0D+13.3D+1.7
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-10-27600R+2.0R+4.1D+2.1
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-10-18600D+11.0D+13.3R+2.3
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-10-18600R+8.0R+4.1R+3.9
20122012_Sen-G_MISen-G2012-10-28600D+21.0D+20.8D+0.2
20122012_Pres-G_MIPres-G2012-10-28600D+6.0D+9.5R+3.5
20122012_Pres-G_MIPres-G2012-10-17800D+6.0D+9.5R+3.5
20102010_Gov-G_MIGov-G2010-10-25600R+18.0R+18.2D+0.2
20102010_Sen-G_INSen-G2010-10-20500R+18.0R+14.6R+3.4
20102010_House-G_IN-7House-G2010-10-20400D+13.0D+21.1R+8.1
20102010_House-G_IN-2House-G2010-10-20400D+5.0D+1.3D+3.7
20102010_House-G_MI-3House-G2010-10-18400R+9.0R+22.2D+13.2
20102010_House-G_MI-15House-G2010-10-18400D+17.0D+16.7D+0.3
20102010_House-G_MI-1House-G2010-10-18400R+2.0R+11.1D+9.1
20102010_House-G_MI-9House-G2010-10-17400D+5.0D+2.5D+2.5
20102010_House-G_MI-7House-G2010-10-17400D+6.0R+4.8D+10.8
20082008_Sen-G_MISen-G2008-10-27600D+18.0D+28.8R+10.8
20082008_Pres-G_MIPres-G2008-10-27600D+12.0D+16.5R+4.5
20082008_Sen-G_MISen-G2008-10-21400D+28.0D+28.8R+0.8
20082008_Pres-G_MIPres-G2008-10-21400D+14.0D+16.5R+2.5
20062006_Sen-G_MISen-G2006-10-31600D+13.0D+15.7R+2.6
20062006_Gov-G_MIGov-G2006-10-31600D+9.0D+14.1R+5.1
20062006_Sen-G_MISen-G2006-10-28600D+14.0D+15.7R+1.6
20062006_Gov-G_MIGov-G2006-10-28600D+10.0D+14.1R+4.1
20062006_Sen-G_MISen-G2006-10-24600D+12.0D+15.7R+3.6
20062006_Gov-G_MIGov-G2006-10-24600D+5.0D+14.1R+9.1
20042004_Pres-G_MIPres-G2004-10-20610D+6.0D+3.4D+2.6
20022002_Sen-G_MISen-G2002-11-01500D+30.0D+22.7D+7.3
20022002_Gov-G_MIGov-G2002-11-01500D+9.0D+4.0D+5.0
20022002_Sen-G_MISen-G2002-10-29500D+32.0D+22.7D+9.3
20022002_Gov-G_MIGov-G2002-10-29500D+11.0D+4.0D+7.0
20022002_Gov-G_MIGov-G2002-10-21500D+14.0D+4.0D+10.0
20002000_Sen-G_MISen-G2000-11-02500R+5.0D+1.6R+6.6
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-11-02500D+1.0D+5.1R+4.1
20002000_Sen-G_MISen-G2000-10-245000D+1.6R+1.6
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-10-24600R+2.0D+5.1R+7.1
20002000_House-G_MI-8House-G2000-10-24400D+1.0R+0.1D+1.1
20002000_Sen-G_MISen-G2000-10-18500R+7.0D+1.6R+8.6
20002000_Pres-G_MIPres-G2000-10-186000D+5.1R+5.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.